4838 E Willetta St

Phoenix, AZ 85008

$579,900F

12 bd · 9.0 ba · 1,989 sqft · Built 1960 · MultiFamily · Active · 192 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,671/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,041
• Tax + insurance: −$966
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$771
• Net cashflow: $-1,107/mo
• Annual: $-13,290/yr
• Cap rate: 4.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.18%
• DSCR: 0.64
• 1% rule: 0.63%
• Cash to close: $162,372

Investor read

• This is a 2×1bd/1.0ba + 1×2bd/1.0ba units multifamily listed at $580k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative. Per door: $-369/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $420k (27.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $367k (36.7% below list).
• It's been on market 192 days — a 12% lower offer ($510k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $367k (36.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $17k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Phoenix Union High School District (4286) (urban): math 10% / reading 15% proficiency, ranked #224 of 249 in AZ (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Brunson-Lee Elementary School (math 7% / reading 16%, grade F, #971 of 1,109 statewide, top 88%, 443 students, 92% FRL); Pat Tillman Middle School (math 5% / reading 15%, grade F, #188 of 218 statewide, top 88%, 652 students, 100% FRL); Camelback High School (math 6% / reading 7%, grade F, #363 of 381 statewide, top 95%, 2,238 students, 86% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.4%/yr); 176 active listings in the ZIP; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 9 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $70k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• At $3,671/mo this rent would consume 66% of the median local household income ($66k/yr) (locally 2661% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 192 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?