4838 E Willetta St · Phoenix, AZ 85008

$579,900

12 bd · 9.0 ba · 1,989 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 192 Days on market

Built 1960

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.0/30.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 3 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

Discover a fully updated triplex in a prime Phoenix location—an exceptional investment opportunity you won't want to miss. This well-maintained building features two renovated 1-bed/1-bath units and one spacious and updated 2-bed/1-bath unit, offering strong rental versatility and appeal. Each unit has been thoughtfully refreshed with modern finishes, creating comfortable, move-in-ready living spaces. The property includes covered parking, low-maintenance landscaping, and easy access to some of the area's best amenities. Just minutes from Papago Park, the Phoenix Zoo, and SR-143, residents enjoy quick commutes, outdoor recreation, and countless attractions at their doorstep.

Key facts

• Quick commutes
• Renovated units
• Covered parking

Tags

• PRIME PHOENIX LOCATION
• RENOVATED UNITS
• COVERED PARKING
• LOW-MAINTENANCE LANDSCAPING
• EASY ACCESS TO AMENITIES
• QUICK COMMUTES

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 3 total parking spaces; 3 covered parking spaces; Carport
• Utilities: SRP electric service; Public sewer; Individual water meter
• Home design: Fee simple ownership; 1 building on the property
• Construction: Block construction; Painted exterior; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Painted block construction; Composition roof; Asphalt road access; No pool

Interior

• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom (unfurnished unit)
• Flooring: Vinyl floors
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Ceiling fan(s); Window/wall unit cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Window/wall cooling units; Electric heating; Vinyl flooring; Other appliances included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2×1bd/1.0ba + 1×2bd/1.0ba units multifamily listed at $580k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative. Per door: $-369/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $420k (27.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $367k (36.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $367k (36.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Phoenix Union High School District (4286) (urban): math 10% / reading 15% proficiency, ranked #224 of 249 in AZ (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Brunson-Lee Elementary School (math 7% / reading 16%, grade F, #971 of 1,109 statewide, top 88%, 443 students, 92% FRL); Pat Tillman Middle School (math 5% / reading 15%, grade F, #188 of 218 statewide, top 88%, 652 students, 100% FRL); Camelback High School (math 6% / reading 7%, grade F, #363 of 381 statewide, top 95%, 2,238 students, 86% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.4%/yr); 176 active listings in the ZIP; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,671/mo this rent would consume 66% of the median local household income ($66k/yr) (locally 2661% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $17k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 192 days — a 12% lower offer ($510k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $70k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $367,100 (36.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 192 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
4. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
5. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.18%
• DSCR: 0.64
• GRM: 13.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -34.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.08×
• Total profit: $-175,207
• Equity at exit: $86,465

10-year hold

• IRR: -65.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.75×
• Total profit: $-284,744
• Equity at exit: $50,139

Cash invested: $162,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85008

• Rents YoY: -2.4%
• Active inventory: 176
• Price-to-rent: 41.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,671 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,041
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$725 /mo · $8,698/yr
• Insurance: −$242
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$771
• Net cashflow: $-1,107

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,073

Max offer price $419,648

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-707	-5% $-907	+0% $-1,107	+5% $-1,308	+10% $-1,508
Rent	-10% $-1,397	-5% $-1,252	+0% $-1,107	+5% $-962	+10% $-817
Rate	-1.0pp $-815	-0.5pp $-960	base $-1,107	+0.5pp $-1,258	+1.0pp $-1,411

3-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	1	1	$2,354
1× unit	2	1	$1,318
Total (3 units)			$3,671

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $144,975
• Closing costs: $17,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $579,900 Active 192 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $579,900 Active 189 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $579,900 Active 188 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $579,900 Active 187 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $579,900 Active 186 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $579,900 Active 184 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $579,900 Active 180 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $579,900 Active 179 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $579,900 Active 178 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $579,900 Active 175 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $579,900 Active 174 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $579,900 Active 173 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $579,900 Active 172 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $579,900 Active 171 DOM
15. 2026-05-21
    price $579,900
16. 2026-04-21
    price $599,900
17. 2026-03-19
    price $614,900
18. 2026-02-19
    price $629,900
19. 2025-12-09
    listed $649,900 Active
20. 2025-03-28
    historical
21. 2025-03-13
    price $800,000
22. 2025-02-23
    price $585,000
23. 2025-02-14
    listed $625,000 Active
24. 2025-02-04
    historical
25. 2025-01-28
    status Active
26. 2025-01-28
    price $625,000
27. 2025-01-21
    status Pending
28. 2025-01-09
    listed $650,000 Active
29. 2024-09-19
    historical
30. 2024-06-28
    price $749,900
31. 2024-05-10
    price $799,000
32. 2024-05-08
    price $809,900
33. 2024-04-22
    price $815,000
34. 2024-04-10
    price $823,975
35. 2024-03-22
    price $829,000
36. 2024-03-11
    price $839,000
37. 2024-02-27
    price $844,900
38. 2024-02-22
    listed $849,900 Active
39. 2024-02-05
    historical
40. 2023-12-12
    price $849,000
41. 2023-11-19
    listed $897,500 Active
42. 2023-11-19
    price $897,500
43. 2023-08-29
    soldstatus $650,000
44. 2015-07-29
    soldstatus $262,000
45. 2007-03-06
    historical
46. 2006-08-31
    historical
47. 2006-08-21
    listed $219,000
48. 2006-06-21
    listed $215,000
49. 2005-08-24
    historical
50. 2005-05-13
    listed $198,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $44,052
• − Mortgage interest: −$32,483
• − Property taxes: −$8,698
• − Insurance: −$2,900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,524
• − Management: −$3,524
• − Depreciation: −$16,870
• Taxable loss: −$23,948
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,747
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,542/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Phoenix Union High School District (4286)
• NCES district ID: 0406330
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -27.00%
• Reading proficiency: 15% ▼ -18.00%
• Median HH income: $39,055
• Composite: 10.63/100
• National rank: #9773
• State rank: #224 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #3924

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 1,500,198
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 59,716
• Household income: $66,353
• Rent vs Own: 68.7% rent · 31.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 2661.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 57% Two or more races 36% White 26% Black 10% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 52%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 47% English-only · Spanish 46% Other Asian/Pacific 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -278.09%
• Current HPI: 485.9412
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.37%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+200.5% since first listed

39 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $579,900 ARMLS
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $599,900 ARMLS
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $614,900 ARMLS
• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $629,900 ARMLS
• 2025-12-09 Listed $649,900 ARMLS
• 2025-03-28 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-03-13 Price Changed $800,000 ARMLS
• 2025-02-23 Price Changed $585,000 ARMLS
• 2025-02-14 Listed $625,000 ARMLS
• 2025-02-04 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-01-28 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2025-01-28 Price Changed $625,000 ARMLS
• 2025-01-21 Pending — ARMLS
• 2025-01-09 Listed $650,000 ARMLS
• 2024-09-19 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2024-06-28 Price Changed $749,900 ARMLS
• 2024-05-10 Price Changed $799,000 ARMLS
• 2024-05-08 Price Changed $809,900 ARMLS
• 2024-04-22 Price Changed $815,000 ARMLS
• 2024-04-10 Price Changed $823,975 ARMLS
• 2024-03-22 Price Changed $829,000 ARMLS
• 2024-03-11 Price Changed $839,000 ARMLS
• 2024-02-27 Price Changed $844,900 ARMLS
• 2024-02-22 Listed $849,900 ARMLS
• 2024-02-05 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2023-12-12 Price Changed $849,000 ARMLS
• 2023-11-19 Listed $897,500 ARMLS
• 2023-11-19 Price Changed $897,500 ARMLS
• 2023-08-29 Sold (Public Records) $650,000 Public Records
• 2015-07-29 Sold (Public Records) $262,000 Public Records
• 2007-03-06 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2006-08-31 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2006-08-21 Listed $219,000 ARMLS
• 2006-06-21 Listed $215,000 ARMLS
• 2005-08-24 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2005-05-13 Listed $198,000 ARMLS
• 2000-09-08 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records
• 1991-07-31 Sold (Public Records) $38,000 Public Records
• 1988-04-22 Sold (Public Records) $193,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $902 · +6.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.