3101 Newburg Rd

Bath, PA 18064

$49,900B

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 924 sqft · Built 1983 · Land · Active · 34 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,581/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax + insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$725
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$332
• Net cashflow: $162/mo
• Annual: $1,944/yr
• Cap rate: 11.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.68%
• DSCR: 1.83
• 1% rule: 3.17%
• Cash to close: $13,972

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath land listed at $50k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $162 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $50k).
• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $48k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $345 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#959 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Nazareth Area SD (suburban): math 46% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #92 of 539 in PA (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Lower Nazareth El Sch (math 52% / reading 62%, grade C+, #444 of 1,518 statewide, top 32%, 620 students, 21% FRL); Nazareth Area Ms (math 28% / reading 63%, grade D+, #184 of 512 statewide, top 36%, 778 students, 24% FRL); Nazareth Area Hs (math 75%, 1,594 students, 22% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; HOA is 46% of rent.
• Market conditions: 115 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 567 units permitted in Northampton County in 2024 (151 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 4 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $16k; list at $50k implies a 212% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; moderate wind risk, 23% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 11.5% vs local median 2.2% in Bath — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.