3101 Newburg Rd · Upper Nazareth, PA 18064

$49,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 924 sqft · Land · 31 Days on market

Built 1983 $725/mo HOA · 46% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this thoughtfully updated, ranch-style manufactured home nestled in highly desirable Upper Nazareth Township. This property is perfectly suited for first-time buyers, those looking to downsize without sacrificing functionality, or anyone seeking the ease of single-level living with modern upgrades already completed. Set within a peaceful community, this home greets you with dedicated driveway parking and a charming porch entryway. The exterior highlights meticulous care, featuring a durable, newly sealed metal roof alongside brand-new doors and windows that offer peace of mind and energy efficiency. As you approach, a charming porch entryway welcomes you into the home. Step insid

Key facts

• Brand new doors
• Brand new windows
• Parking

Tags

• RANCH STYLE MANUFACTURED HOME
• DEDICATED DRIVEWAY PARKING
• NEWLY SEALED METAL ROOF
• BRAND NEW DOORS
• BRAND NEW WINDOWS
• SUN DRENCHED LIVING ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association fee $725 monthly; Has land lease

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Community/Coop water; Community/Coop sewer
• Home design: Single-story mobile home; Metal roof; Aluminum siding; Entry level: 1
• Construction: Built: Unknown
• Exterior features: Awning(s); Patio; Propane tank (leased); Has a view

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven
• Bedrooms: Den; Office
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (propane); Ceiling fans; Wall/window cooling units
• Interior features: Dining area; Home office; Kitchen island; Fireplaces in kitchen and living room
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath land listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $162 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $48k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Nazareth Area SD (suburban): math 46% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #92 of 539 in PA (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 115 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 567 units permitted in Northampton County in 2024 (151 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $345 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $16k; list at $50k implies a 212% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; HOA is 46% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; moderate wind risk, 23% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $48,403 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.68%
• DSCR: 1.83
• GRM: 2.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.19×
• Total profit: $2,710
• Equity at exit: $7,440

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.26×
• Total profit: $17,592
• Equity at exit: $4,314

Cash invested: $13,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18064

• Active inventory: 115
• Price-to-rent: 2.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,581 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$24 /mo · $290/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$725
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$332
• Net cashflow: $162

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,376

Max offer price $49,900

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $190	-5% $176	+0% $162	+5% $148	+10% $134
Rent	-10% $37	-5% $100	+0% $162	+5% $224	+10% $287
Rate	-1.0pp $187	-0.5pp $175	base $162	+0.5pp $149	+1.0pp $136

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,475
• Closing costs: $1,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $725 · $8,700/yr

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $49,900 Active 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $49,900 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $49,900 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $49,900 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $49,900 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $49,900 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $49,900 Active 23 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $49,900 Active 22 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $49,900 Active 21 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $49,900 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $49,900 Active 16 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $49,900 Active 15 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $49,900 Active 14 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $49,900 Active 13 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $49,900 Active 12 DOM
16. 2026-05-18
    listed $49,900 Active 1850-char remark
17. 2026-05-07
    historical
18. 2026-03-13
    historical
19. 2026-01-13
    listed $68,000 Active
20. 2026-01-11
    listed $68,000 Active
21. 2015-03-13
    soldstatus $16,000 Sold
22. 2015-02-19
    listed $16,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $290 · $24/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $539 · $45/mo
• Expected delta: +$249/yr (+$21/mo · 86.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 23% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,974
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,795
• − Property taxes: −$290
• − Insurance: −$916
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,518
• − Management: −$1,518
• − HOA: −$8,700
• − Depreciation: −$1,452
• Taxable income: $1,786
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$429
• After-tax cash flow: $1,515/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nazareth Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4216380
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $75,914
• Composite: 48.92/100
• National rank: #2077
• State rank: #92 of 539 in PA

Livability — Upper Nazareth

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Northampton County · 236,814 people
• Metro: Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ
• Population (ZIP): 26,970
• Household income: $103,393
• Rent vs Own: 24.6% rent · 75.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 646.0

Population outlook (Northampton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 312,227 people
• By 2030: 314,769 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 316,914 · +1.5%
• By 2050: 318,037 · +1.9%
• By 2075: 334,003 · +7.0%
• By 2100: 344,696 · +10.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4% Asian 3% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Polish 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Northampton

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.6% · R 50.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.1pp toward R · 2008: 12.3pp · 2024: -1.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.8 2020: D+0.7 2016: R+3.8 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+12.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -325.05%
• Current HPI: 201.3535
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+211.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $49,900 GLVRMLS
• 2026-05-07 Listing Removed — GLVRMLS
• 2026-03-13 Delisted — PMAR
• 2026-01-13 Listed $68,000 PMAR
• 2026-01-11 Listed $68,000 GLVRMLS
• 2015-03-13 Sold (MLS) $16,000 GLVRMLS
• 2015-02-19 Listed $16,000 GLVRMLS

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $290 · +5.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.