6275 Smokey Ridge Rd

Cave Spring, VA 24018

$319,000F

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,608 sqft · Built 1982 · SingleFamily · Pending · 17 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,299/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,673
• Tax + insurance: −$370
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$483
• Net cashflow: $-227/mo
• Annual: $-2,722/yr
• Cap rate: 5.44%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.05%
• DSCR: 0.86
• 1% rule: 0.72%
• Cash to close: $89,320

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $319k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-227 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $279k (12.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $230k (27.9% below list).
• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($314k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $230k (27.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#113 in VA, #3,513 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Roanoke County Public School District (suburban): math 71% / reading 78% proficiency, ranked #9 of 131 in VA (top 7%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Cave Spring Elementary (math 77% / reading 82%, grade A, #141 of 1,108 statewide, top 14%, 508 students, 24% FRL); Hidden Valley Middle (math 76% / reading 83%, grade A+, #28 of 342 statewide, top 8%, 578 students, 26% FRL); Hidden Valley High (math 90% / reading 92%, grade A+, #5 of 319 statewide, top 1%, 830 students, 24% FRL) — zoned schools at 25% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 333 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 360 units permitted in Roanoke County in 2024 (228 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Roanoke County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Current owner paid $115k; list at $319k implies a 177% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.4% in Cave Spring — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($91k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.