6275 Smokey Ridge Rd · Cave Spring, VA 24018

$319,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,608 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1982 0.77 ac lot Est $296k · 8% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.4/30.0
• Schools +6.4/10.0
• ARV discount +4.0/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Contemporary home nestled in a peaceful wooded setting with beautiful mountain views! This 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath home offers the perfect blend of privacy and convenience, just minutes from hospitals, shopping, and restaurants. The spacious great room features a stunning masonry fireplace and cathedral ceiling with skylight, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere. The kitchen is filled with natural light from the skylight and includes a large pantry for added storage. Enjoy serene surroundings and comfortable living in this unique mountain retreat!

Key facts

• Masonry fireplace
• Natural light
• Wooded setting

Tags

• WOODED SETTING
• MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• MASONRY FIREPLACE
• CATHEDRAL CEILING
• NATURAL LIGHT
• LARGE PANTRY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.77 acres
• Financial info: Annual tax amount: $3,020

Exterior

• Parking: 2 open parking spaces; Off-street parking
• Utilities: Electric heat pump for heating and cooling
• Home design: Residential property
• Construction: Built in 1982
• Exterior features: Rear porch

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile flooring; Vinyl flooring; Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump electric heating; Heat pump electric cooling; Has heating and cooling
• Interior features: 10 total rooms; Wood and metal interior doors; Insulated windows

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $319k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-227 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $279k (12.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $230k (27.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $230k (27.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.4% in Cave Spring — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#113 in VA, #3,513 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Roanoke County Public School District (suburban): math 71% / reading 78% proficiency, ranked #9 of 131 in VA (top 7%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Cave Spring Elementary (math 77% / reading 82%, grade A, #141 of 1,108 statewide, top 14%, 508 students, 24% FRL); Hidden Valley Middle (math 76% / reading 83%, grade A+, #28 of 342 statewide, top 8%, 578 students, 26% FRL); Hidden Valley High (math 90% / reading 92%, grade A+, #5 of 319 statewide, top 1%, 830 students, 24% FRL) — zoned schools at 25% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 333 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 360 units permitted in Roanoke County in 2024 (228 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($91k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Roanoke County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($314k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $115k; list at $319k implies a 177% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $229,876 (27.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.44%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.05%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $295,872
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5712 Littlehorn Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,680 (+4%)	2mo	$260,000	$155	66
5579 Cynthia Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,538 (-4%)	8mo	$309,950	$202	62
5962 Two Ford Rd	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,824 (+13%)	2mo	$335,000	$184	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.88% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-66,481
• Equity at exit: $47,564

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-77,892
• Equity at exit: $27,581

Cash invested: $89,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24018

• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 333
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,299 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,673
• Tax from tax record: −$237 /mo · $2,845/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$483
• Net cashflow: $-227

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,586

Max offer price $278,928

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,750
• Closing costs: $9,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5220 Lakeland Dr Roanoke, VA	3.0	2.5	2000	$2,695	$1.35	44d	1	1.01mi
5204 Lakeland Dr Roanoke, VA	3.0	2.5	2000	$2,595	$1.30	44d	1	1.04mi
4630 Roxbury Ln Cave Spring, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	930	$1,625	$1.75	13d	7	1.19mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-08
   statusdays on market $319,000 Pending 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-05
   days on market $319,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $319,000 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $319,000 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $319,000 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-05-30
   days on market $319,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-05-13
   status Pending
8. 2026-05-08
   listed $319,000 Active
9. 1988-11-01
   soldstatus $115,000
10. 1985-03-01
    soldstatus $91,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,845 · $237/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,845 · $237/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,585
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,869
• − Property taxes: −$2,845
• − Insurance: −$1,595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,207
• − Management: −$2,207
• − Depreciation: −$9,280
• Taxable loss: −$8,417
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,020
• After-tax cash flow: $-702/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Roanoke County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103330
• Math proficiency: 71% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 78% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $60,526
• Composite: 64.08/100
• National rank: #578
• State rank: #9 of 131 in VA

Livability — Cave Spring

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #113
• US rank: #3513

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime B- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cave Spring, VA
• County: Roanoke County · 67,305 people
• Metro: Roanoke, VA
• Population (ZIP): 38,720
• Household income: $90,885
• Rent vs Own: 26.7% rent · 73.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 495.0

Population outlook (Roanoke County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 98,162 people
• By 2030: 99,793 · +1.7%
• By 2040: 101,965 · +3.9%
• By 2050: 103,328 · +5.3%
• By 2075: 108,641 · +10.7%
• By 2100: 104,845 · +6.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Asian 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 4% Black 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Roanoke

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.5) · D 38.2% · R 60.7% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.4pp toward R · 2008: -21.1pp · 2024: -22.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.5 2020: R+21.8 2016: R+28.1 2012: R+25.6 2008: R+21.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -266.18%
• Current HPI: 176.0558
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.88%
• Metro: Roanoke, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+250.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Pending — MLSRV
• 2026-05-08 Listed $319,000 MLSRV
• 1988-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $115,000 Public Records
• 1985-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $91,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,845 · +8.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.