16810 S Inspiration Ave

Mammoth, AZ 85618

$84,999B

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Built 1974 · SingleFamily · Active · 102 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,163/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax + insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$244
• Net cashflow: $370/mo
• Annual: $4,435/yr
• Cap rate: 11.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.63%
• DSCR: 1.83
• 1% rule: 1.37%
• Cash to close: $23,800

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $370 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• It's been on market 102 days — a 9% lower offer ($77k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $77k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($587 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#186 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Mammoth-San Manuel Unified District (4439) (rural): math 34% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #262 of 501 in AZ (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: San Manuel Jr. High School (math 12% / reading 8%, grade F, #194 of 218 statewide, top 90%, 120 students, 0% FRL); San Manuel High School (math 10% / reading 10%, grade F, #298 of 381 statewide, top 90%, 183 students, 75% FRL) — zoned schools average 38% FRL vs 64% district-wide (27 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 10% at this address vs 33% district-wide (-23 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Mammoth-San Manuel Unified District (4439) average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 16 active listings in the ZIP; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 4 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $22k; list at $85k implies a 278% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 102 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.