2006 Elm Creek Dr

Granite Shoals, TX 78654

$108,000F

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,704 sqft · Built 1975 · SingleFamily · Active · 282 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,019/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,505
• Tax + insurance: −$954
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$424
• Net cashflow: $-1,865/mo
• Annual: $-22,380/yr
• Cap rate: 2.68%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.90%
• DSCR: 0.43
• 1% rule: 0.42%
• Cash to close: $133,766

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $108k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-22k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $108k).
• It's been on market 282 days — a 12% lower offer ($95k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $95k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#684 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Marble Falls ISD (town): math 32% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #511 of 826 in TX (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.7% of price; flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.6%/yr); 764 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 891 units permitted in Burnet County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Burnet County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $39k; list at $108k implies a 177% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wind risk, 60% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 2.7% vs local median 1.1% in Granite Shoals — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 282 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?