2006 Elm Creek Dr · Granite Shoals, TX 78654

$108,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,704 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 279 Days on market

Built 1975 1.30 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +3.5/30.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Bank-Owned Property with Auction Date updated frequently Visit Auction site to place your bid at https://www. hubzu.com/property/94526886127-Granite-Shoals-TX-78654 Great Potential Opportunity for Remodel/Renovation. Fantastic Private Lot with Large Trees and Beautiful Back Yard. Stone House with Metal Roof, Multiple Outbuildings, In-Ground Pool. Home and Lot are SOLD AS-IS WHERE IS. Bank-Owned Property All Bids must be submitted via the property’s listing page shown above. This sale is subject to a 5% or $2,500 minimum buyer’s premium pursuant to the auction Terms & Conditions. All bids will be subject to seller approval (minimums may apply).

Key facts

• Beautiful back yard
• Private lot
• Metal roof

Tags

• PRIVATE LOT
• LARGE TREES
• BEAUTIFUL BACK YARD
• STONE HOUSE
• METAL ROOF
• MULTIPLE OUTBUILDINGS

🔨 Auction listing. The $108,000 list price is a nominal opening bid, not a real ask — every metric below is computed on the estimated value $477,412 (ARV from comps), not the list price.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $108k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-22k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $108k).
• Recommended offer: $95k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 2.7% vs local median 1.1% in Granite Shoals — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#684 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Marble Falls ISD (town): math 32% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #511 of 826 in TX (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.6%/yr); 752 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 891 units permitted in Burnet County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Burnet County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 279 days — a 12% lower offer ($95k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $39k; list at $108k implies a 177% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.7% of price; flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wind risk, 60% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $95,040 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 279 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.42% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.68%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.90%
• DSCR: 0.43
• GRM: 19.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $477,412
• List price: $108,000
• Delta: -77.38%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 19 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1504 Timber Valley Ln	0.33mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,656 (-3%)	12mo	$319,900	$193	65
2101 Valley East Ln	0.25mi	2/2.0	1,496 (-12%)	16mo	$319,000	$213	55
2107 Valley East Ln	0.25mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,590 (-7%)	21mo	$295,000	$186	55
1404 Kings Valley Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,957 (+15%)	24mo	$495,000	$253	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -52.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.51×
• Total profit: $-201,812
• Equity at exit: $71,184

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -1.62×
• Total profit: $-350,874
• Equity at exit: $41,278

Cash invested: $133,675 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78654

• Home prices YoY: -31.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.6%
• Active inventory: 752
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,019 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,504
• Tax from tax record: −$329 /mo · $3,944/yr
• Insurance: −$199
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$424
• Net cashflow: $-1,863

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,377

Max offer price $148,283

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,593	-5% $-1,728	+0% $-1,863	+5% $-1,998	+10% $-2,133
Rent	-10% $-2,023	-5% $-1,943	+0% $-1,863	+5% $-1,783	+10% $-1,704
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,623	-0.5pp $-1,742	base $-1,863	+0.5pp $-1,987	+1.0pp $-2,113

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $119,353
• Closing costs: $14,322
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1404 Kingsvalley Dr Marble Falls, TX	3.0	2.0	1957	$2,400	$1.23	5d	1	0.29mi
1202 N Mystic Dr Granite Shoals, TX	3.0	2.5	1404	$2,199	$1.57	13d	1	0.59mi
104 E Castleshoals Dr Granite Shoals, TX	3.0	2.0	1560	$1,650	$1.06	44d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $108,000 Active 279 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $108,000 Active 278 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $108,000 Active 277 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $108,000 Active 276 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $108,000 Active 274 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $108,000 Active 273 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $108,000 Active 270 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $108,000 Active 269 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $108,000 Active 268 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $108,000 Active 265 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $108,000 Active 264 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $108,000 Active 262 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $108,000 Active 261 DOM
14. 2026-04-22
    price $118,205 669-char remark

    Show marketing remark (669 chars)

    Bank-Owned Property with Auction Date updated frequently Visit Auction site to place your bid at https://www. hubzu.com/property/94526886127-Granite-Shoals-TX-78654 Great Potential Opportunity for Remodel/Renovation. Fantastic Private Lot with Large Trees and Beautiful Back Yard. Stone House with Metal Roof, Multiple Outbuildings, In-Ground Pool. Home and Lot are SOLD AS-IS WHERE IS. Bank-Owned Property All Bids must be submitted via the property’s listing page shown above. This sale is subject to a 5% or $2,500 minimum buyer’s premium pursuant to the auction Terms & Conditions. All bids will be subject to seller approval (minimums may apply).

15. 2026-03-26
    price $128,484 669-char remark

    Show marketing remark (669 chars)

    Bank-Owned Property with Auction Date updated frequently Visit Auction site to place your bid at https://www. hubzu.com/property/94526886127-Granite-Shoals-TX-78654 Great Potential Opportunity for Remodel/Renovation. Fantastic Private Lot with Large Trees and Beautiful Back Yard. Stone House with Metal Roof, Multiple Outbuildings, In-Ground Pool. Home and Lot are SOLD AS-IS WHERE IS. Bank-Owned Property All Bids must be submitted via the property’s listing page shown above. This sale is subject to a 5% or $2,500 minimum buyer’s premium pursuant to the auction Terms & Conditions. All bids will be subject to seller approval (minimums may apply).

16. 2026-02-25
    price $139,656 669-char remark

    Show marketing remark (669 chars)

    Bank-Owned Property with Auction Date updated frequently Visit Auction site to place your bid at https://www. hubzu.com/property/94526886127-Granite-Shoals-TX-78654 Great Potential Opportunity for Remodel/Renovation. Fantastic Private Lot with Large Trees and Beautiful Back Yard. Stone House with Metal Roof, Multiple Outbuildings, In-Ground Pool. Home and Lot are SOLD AS-IS WHERE IS. Bank-Owned Property All Bids must be submitted via the property’s listing page shown above. This sale is subject to a 5% or $2,500 minimum buyer’s premium pursuant to the auction Terms & Conditions. All bids will be subject to seller approval (minimums may apply).

17. 2026-02-04
    price $151,800 669-char remark

    Show marketing remark (669 chars)

    Bank-Owned Property with Auction Date updated frequently Visit Auction site to place your bid at https://www. hubzu.com/property/94526886127-Granite-Shoals-TX-78654 Great Potential Opportunity for Remodel/Renovation. Fantastic Private Lot with Large Trees and Beautiful Back Yard. Stone House with Metal Roof, Multiple Outbuildings, In-Ground Pool. Home and Lot are SOLD AS-IS WHERE IS. Bank-Owned Property All Bids must be submitted via the property’s listing page shown above. This sale is subject to a 5% or $2,500 minimum buyer’s premium pursuant to the auction Terms & Conditions. All bids will be subject to seller approval (minimums may apply).

18. 2025-12-11
    price $165,000 669-char remark

    Show marketing remark (669 chars)

    Bank-Owned Property with Auction Date updated frequently Visit Auction site to place your bid at https://www. hubzu.com/property/94526886127-Granite-Shoals-TX-78654 Great Potential Opportunity for Remodel/Renovation. Fantastic Private Lot with Large Trees and Beautiful Back Yard. Stone House with Metal Roof, Multiple Outbuildings, In-Ground Pool. Home and Lot are SOLD AS-IS WHERE IS. Bank-Owned Property All Bids must be submitted via the property’s listing page shown above. This sale is subject to a 5% or $2,500 minimum buyer’s premium pursuant to the auction Terms & Conditions. All bids will be subject to seller approval (minimums may apply).

19. 2025-11-04
    price $175,000 669-char remark

    Show marketing remark (669 chars)

    Bank-Owned Property with Auction Date updated frequently Visit Auction site to place your bid at https://www. hubzu.com/property/94526886127-Granite-Shoals-TX-78654 Great Potential Opportunity for Remodel/Renovation. Fantastic Private Lot with Large Trees and Beautiful Back Yard. Stone House with Metal Roof, Multiple Outbuildings, In-Ground Pool. Home and Lot are SOLD AS-IS WHERE IS. Bank-Owned Property All Bids must be submitted via the property’s listing page shown above. This sale is subject to a 5% or $2,500 minimum buyer’s premium pursuant to the auction Terms & Conditions. All bids will be subject to seller approval (minimums may apply).

20. 2025-09-12
    listed $187,200 Active 669-char remark

    Show marketing remark (669 chars)

    Bank-Owned Property with Auction Date updated frequently Visit Auction site to place your bid at https://www. hubzu.com/property/94526886127-Granite-Shoals-TX-78654 Great Potential Opportunity for Remodel/Renovation. Fantastic Private Lot with Large Trees and Beautiful Back Yard. Stone House with Metal Roof, Multiple Outbuildings, In-Ground Pool. Home and Lot are SOLD AS-IS WHERE IS. Bank-Owned Property All Bids must be submitted via the property’s listing page shown above. This sale is subject to a 5% or $2,500 minimum buyer’s premium pursuant to the auction Terms & Conditions. All bids will be subject to seller approval (minimums may apply).

21. 2024-11-14
    soldstatus
22. 2019-06-12
    soldstatus
23. 2005-10-07
    soldstatus $39,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,944 · $329/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,944 · $329/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone AE · 72% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 60% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,222
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,742
• − Property taxes: −$3,944
• − Insurance: −$7,506
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,938
• − Management: −$1,938
• − Depreciation: −$13,888
• Taxable loss: −$31,734
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$7,616
• After-tax cash flow: $-14,741/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marble Falls ISD
• NCES district ID: 4829010
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,663
• Composite: 30.3/100
• National rank: #6278
• State rank: #511 of 826 in TX

Livability — Granite Shoals

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #684
• US rank: #12785

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Granite Shoals, TX
• County: Burnet County · 35,210 people
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 20,650
• Household income: $74,130
• Rent vs Own: 33.3% rent · 66.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 354.0

Population outlook (Burnet County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,492 people
• By 2030: 52,995 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 57,528 · +13.9%
• By 2050: 61,444 · +21.7%
• By 2075: 71,098 · +40.8%
• By 2100: 74,634 · +47.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Burnet

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.7) · D 21.7% · R 77.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: -44.1pp · 2024: -55.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.7 2020: R+53.1 2016: R+56.8 2012: R+54.6 2008: R+44.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -118.02%
• Current HPI: 252.9861
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.62%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+203.1% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $118,205 Unlock MLS
• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $128,484 Unlock MLS
• 2026-02-25 Price Changed $139,656 Unlock MLS
• 2026-02-04 Price Changed $151,800 Unlock MLS
• 2025-12-11 Price Changed $165,000 Unlock MLS
• 2025-11-04 Price Changed $175,000 Unlock MLS
• 2025-09-12 Listed $187,200 Unlock MLS
• 2024-11-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-06-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-10-07 Sold (Public Records) $39,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,944 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.