27450 SW 138th Path

Naranja, FL 33032

$375,000D+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,028 sqft · Built 2005 · Townhouse · Pending · 184 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,198/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,967
• Tax + insurance: −$428
• HOA: −$208
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$672
• Net cashflow: $-76/mo
• Annual: $-916/yr
• Cap rate: 6.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.86%
• DSCR: 1.04
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $105,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $375k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-76 ($-916/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $362k (3.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $320k (14.7% below list).
• It's been on market 184 days — a 12% lower offer ($330k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $320k (14.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#634 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A, commute A-, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities F, employment F, health & safety F.
• Miami-Dade (suburban): math 45% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #40 of 73 in FL (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Dr. William A. Chapman Elementary School (math 37% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,609 of 2,144 statewide, top 77%, 554 students, 79% FRL); Redland Middle School (math 21% / reading 30%, grade F, #512 of 571 statewide, top 90%, 601 students, 71% FRL); Homestead Senior High School (math 24% / reading 23%, grade F, #533 of 667 statewide, top 80%, 2,020 students, 74% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 29% at this address vs 50% district-wide (-21 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Miami-Dade average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $152/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 595 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,051 units permitted in Miami-Dade County in 2024 (7,758 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Miami-Dade County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $54k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $130k; list at $375k implies a 188% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AH (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→32/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $3,198/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($73k/yr) (locally 3351% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 184 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?