27450 SW 138th Path · Naranja, FL 33032

$375,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,028 sqft · Townhouse public records · 184 Days on market

Built 2005 Est $635k · 41% under · waterfront $208/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.4/30.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Corporate owned property! Absolutely beautiful 4 bedroom 2.5 bath. Quiet corner unit with waterfront (canal view). Beautiful tile floors and carpet in bedroom. Large master bedroom with double vanity in master bath. l

Key facts

• Clubhouse
• Gated security
• Pool

Tags

• WATERFRONT CORNER LOT
• LOW HOA
• POOL
• CLUBHOUSE
• GATED SECURITY
• CLOSE TO GOOD SCHOOLS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Association-managed pool
• Financial info: Pets allowed (dogs OK)
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee; Association covers common areas, grounds maintenance, parking, pool(s), recreation facilities, reserve fund, sewer, security, and trash; Community amenities include clubhouse, fitness center, barbecue, picnic area, playground, and pool

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Garage with door opener; Two or more parking spaces (includes 1 covered space)
• Security: Complex fenced; Phone entry; Security guard; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Cable available; Sewer included in association; Trash service included in association
• Home design: 2 stories; Attached property; First-floor entry
• Construction: Block construction; Resale property
• Exterior features: Patio; Storm/security shutters; Canal-front waterfront; Has a view; Exterior lighting

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen / breakfast area
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom located on upper level; Additional bedroom on main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Blinds on windows; Bedroom on main level; Breakfast area; Dual sinks; Eat-in kitchen; First-floor entry; Combined living/dining room; Tub with shower; Upper-level primary bedroom; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater; Satellite dish

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $375k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-76 ($-916/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $362k (3.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $320k (14.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $320k (14.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#634 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A, commute A-, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities F, employment F, health & safety F.
• Miami-Dade (suburban): math 45% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #40 of 73 in FL (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Dr. William A. Chapman Elementary School (math 37% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,609 of 2,144 statewide, top 77%, 554 students, 79% FRL); Redland Middle School (math 21% / reading 30%, grade F, #512 of 571 statewide, top 90%, 601 students, 71% FRL); Homestead Senior High School (math 24% / reading 23%, grade F, #533 of 667 statewide, top 80%, 2,020 students, 74% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 29% at this address vs 50% district-wide (-21 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Miami-Dade average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 590 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,051 units permitted in Miami-Dade County in 2024 (7,758 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,198/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($73k/yr) (locally 3351% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Miami-Dade County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 184 days — a 12% lower offer ($330k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $54k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $130k; list at $375k implies a 188% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $152/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AH (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→32/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $319,776 (14.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 184 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
10. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
11. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
12. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
13. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
14. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.86%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $635,170
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13770 SW 276th St	0.19mi	4/2.5	2,028 (0%)	8mo	$392,000	$193	82
14056 SW 272nd St	0.20mi	5/5.0 (+1)	1,850 (-9%)	18mo	$429,750	$232	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-74,946
• Equity at exit: $55,914

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.02×
• Total profit: $-107,518
• Equity at exit: $32,423

Cash invested: $105,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33032

• Home prices YoY: -29.8%
• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 590
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,198 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,967
• Tax from tax record: −$120 /mo · $1,437/yr
• Insurance: −$156
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$152 /mo · $1,824/yr
• HOA: −$208
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$672
• Net cashflow: $-76

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,294

Max offer price $361,510

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $136	-5% $30	+0% $-76	+5% $-183	+10% $-289
Rent	-10% $-329	-5% $-203	+0% $-76	+5% $50	+10% $176
Rate	-1.0pp $112	-0.5pp $19	base $-76	+0.5pp $-174	+1.0pp $-272

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $93,750
• Closing costs: $11,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13849 SW 275th Ter Homestead, FL	4.0	3.0	1837	$2,650	$1.44	24d	1	0.06mi
27432 SW 139th Pl Homestead, FL	4.0	2.0	2611	$3,800	$1.46	26d	1	0.08mi
27501 SW 138th Ave Homestead, FL	4.0	2.5	2028	$2,800	$1.38	24d	1	0.12mi
27433 SW 137th Ct Unit 1 Homestead, FL	3.0	2.5	1679	$2,550	$1.52	26d	1	0.14mi
27433 SW 137th Ct Unit 1 Homestead, FL	3.0	2.5	1679	$2,550	$1.52	10d	1	0.14mi
27424 SW 140th Ave Homestead, FL	3.0	2.5	2799	$3,205	$1.15	15d	1	0.17mi
27424 SW 140th Ave Homestead, FL	3.0	2.5	2799	$3,205	$1.15	1d	1	0.17mi
14044 SW 273rd Ln Unit 14044 Homestead, FL	4.0	2.5	1850	$2,900	$1.57	26d	1	0.21mi
14050 SW 272nd St Homestead, FL	3.0	2.5	1580	$2,450	$1.55	26d	1	0.22mi
14161 SW 276th St Homestead, FL	3.0	2.5	1580	$2,550	$1.61	16d	1	0.27mi
14152 SW 276th St Homestead, FL	4.0	2.5	2245	$2,800	$1.25	26d	1	0.27mi
27345 SW 142nd Ave Unit 27345 Homestead, FL	3.0	2.5	1850	$3,000	$1.62	14d	1	0.28mi
13903 SW 279th Ln #13903 Homestead, FL	3.0	2.5	1580	$2,900	$1.84	1d	1	0.31mi
13903 SW 279th Ln #13903 Homestead, FL	3.0	2.5	1580	$2,850	$1.80	26d	1	0.31mi
13945 SW 279th Ln Unit 13945 Homestead, FL	3.0	2.5	1580	$3,100	$1.96	26d	1	0.34mi
27568 SW 143rd Ave Unit 27568 Homestead, FL	3.0	2.5	1580	$2,500	$1.58	5d	1	0.35mi
27918 SW 140th Ave Unit 27918 Homestead, FL	3.0	2.5	1580	$2,600	$1.65	23d	1	0.35mi
27037 SW 142nd Ave Homestead, FL	5.0	3.0	2799	$3,500	$1.25	26d	1	0.37mi
27440 SW 135th Avenue Rd Unit 27440 Naranja, FL	3.0	3.0	1799	$3,300	$1.83	26d	1	0.43mi
27721 SW 134th Ct Homestead, FL	3.0	2.0	1685	$3,600	$2.14	24d	1	0.48mi
28104 SW 135th Ave Homestead, FL	3.0	2.0	1438	$3,450	$2.40	26d	1	0.52mi
27844 SW 133rd Path Homestead, FL	3.0	2.0	1663	$3,800	$2.29	26d	1	0.53mi
26524 SW 138th Ave Unit 26524 Homestead, FL	4.0	3.0	1604	$2,800	$1.75	26d	1	0.58mi
26514 SW 138th Ave Unit 26516 Homestead, FL	3.0	2.0	2400	$2,700	$1.12	26d	1	0.59mi
27160 SW 132nd Court Rd Homestead, FL	3.0	2.0	1977	$3,300	$1.67	26d	1	0.60mi
28364 SW 140th Pl Homestead, FL	3.0	2.0	1427	$2,550	$1.79	1d	1	0.62mi
28037 SW 133rd Pl Homestead, FL	3.0	2.0	1538	$2,350	$1.53	10d	1	0.67mi
13269 SW 278th St Unit 13269 Homestead, FL	4.0	2.0	1492	$3,250	$2.18	26d	1	0.67mi
13233 SW 272nd St Homestead, FL	3.0	2.0	2130	$3,500	$1.64	26d	1	0.69mi
13233 SW 272nd St Homestead, FL	3.0	2.0	2130	$3,500	$1.64	23d	1	0.69mi
26925 SW 145th Ave Homestead, FL	3.0	2.0	2073	$3,100	$1.50	5d	1	0.71mi
26925 SW 145th Ave Homestead, FL	3.0	2.0	2073	$3,100	$1.50	24d	1	0.71mi
26964 SW 132 Ct Rd #0 Naranja, FL	4.0	2.5	2980	$3,900	$1.31	1d	1	0.71mi
26964 SW 132 Ct Rd #0 Naranja, FL	4.0	2.5	2980	$4,000	$1.34	19d	1	0.71mi
14515 SW 272nd St Unit 14515 Homestead, FL	3.0	2.0	1431	$3,200	$2.24	26d	1	0.72mi
14519 SW 272nd St #14519 Naranja, FL	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,800	$1.87	23d	1	0.73mi
25936 SW 139th Path #25936 Naranja, FL	4.0	3.5	1434	$2,300	$1.60	26d	1	0.75mi
14280 SW 285th St Homestead, FL	3.0	2.0	1500	$3,200	$2.13	26d	1	0.77mi
13201 SW 269th Ter Homestead, FL	4.0	2.5	2944	$3,700	$1.26	26d	1	0.78mi
13417 SW 285th St #13417 Homestead, FL	4.0	2.0	1833	$3,325	$1.81	10d	1	0.80mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $208 · $2,496/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-05-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-17
   status Active
3. 2026-05-10
   status Pending
4. 2026-04-30
   price $375,000
5. 2026-04-16
   price $379,000
6. 2026-03-18
   price $389,900
7. 2026-02-18
   price $399,900
8. 2026-02-11
   price $409,000
9. 2026-01-05
   price $419,000
10. 2025-11-10
    listed $429,000 Active
11. 2008-06-23
    soldstatus $130,000 217-char remark

    Show marketing remark (217 chars)

    Corporate owned property! Absolutely beautiful 4 bedroom 2.5 bath. Quiet corner unit with waterfront (canal view). Beautiful tile floors and carpet in bedroom. Large master bedroom with double vanity in master bath. l

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,437 · $120/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,112 · $259/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,675/yr (+$140/mo · 116.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone AH · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 32 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,373
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,006
• − Property taxes: −$1,437
• − Insurance: −$3,699
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,070
• − Management: −$3,070
• − HOA: −$2,496
• − Depreciation: −$10,909
• Taxable loss: −$7,314
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,755
• After-tax cash flow: $839/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Miami-Dade
• NCES district ID: 1200390
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $43,928
• Composite: 41.76/100
• National rank: #3397
• State rank: #40 of 73 in FL

Livability — Naranja

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #634
• US rank: #12426

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A- Cost of living A- Crime C+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Naranja, FL
• County: Miami-Dade County · 2,697,751 people
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 65,132
• Household income: $73,429
• Rent vs Own: 42.2% rent · 57.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 3351.0

Population outlook (Miami-Dade County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,126,439 people
• By 2030: 3,325,765 · +6.4%
• By 2040: 3,697,561 · +18.3%
• By 2050: 4,012,134 · +28.3%
• By 2075: 4,605,612 · +47.3%
• By 2100: 4,866,598 · +55.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 68% Two or more races 35% Black 20% White 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 31% Dominican 5%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3%
• Foreign-born: 45% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 33% English-only · Spanish 64% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Miami-Dade

• 2024 margin: R (+11.4) · D 43.9% · R 55.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.6pp toward R · 2008: 16.1pp · 2024: -11.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.4 2020: D+7.3 2016: D+29.6 2012: D+23.7 2008: D+16.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -176.52%
• Current HPI: 415.9508
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.99%
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+188.5% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Pending — MARMLS
• 2026-05-17 Relisted — MARMLS
• 2026-05-10 Pending — MARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $375,000 MARMLS
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $379,000 MARMLS
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $389,900 MARMLS
• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $399,900 MARMLS
• 2026-02-11 Price Changed $409,000 MARMLS
• 2026-01-05 Price Changed $419,000 MARMLS
• 2025-11-10 Listed $429,000 MARMLS
• 2008-06-23 Sold (MLS) $130,000 MARMLS

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,437 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.