415 Tampico St

Carlsbad, NM 88220

$153,000B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Built 2013 · Other · Pending · 42 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,153/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$802
• Tax + insurance: −$255
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$452
• Net cashflow: $643/mo
• Annual: $7,720/yr
• Cap rate: 11.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.02%
• DSCR: 1.80
• 1% rule: 1.41%
• Cash to close: $42,840

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $153k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $643 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $153k).
• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $148k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#20 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: commute C-, health & safety C-, crime F.
• Zoned schools: Early Childhood Education Center (170 students, 25% FRL); Carlsbad Intermediate School - Pr Leyva Campus (817 students, 27% FRL); Carlsbad High (1,551 students, 27% FRL).
• Market conditions: 363 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 156 units permitted in Eddy County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Eddy County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.