415 Tampico St · Carlsbad, NM 88220

$153,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Other · 42 Days on market

Built 2013 6,098 sqft lot ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 415 Tampico St in Carlsbad, NM! This well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom double wide mobile home offers 1,512 sq ft of comfortable living space on a 6,000 sq ft lot. The home features central heating and air conditioning, providing year-round comfort. With a functional layout and spacious interior, this property is in livable condition and ready for immediate move-in or rental use. The lot is included in the sale, giving you full ownership of both the home and land—an excellent advantage for long-term value and flexibility. Whether you're looking for a primary residence or an investment property, this home presents a great opportunity in a growing area of Carlsbad. Don’t miss out

Key facts

• Central heating
• Air conditioning
• Full ownership

Tags

• CENTRAL HEATING
• AIR CONDITIONING
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• SPACIOUS INTERIOR
• FULL OWNERSHIP
• GROWING AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $153k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $643 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $153k).
• Recommended offer: $148k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#20 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: commute C-, health & safety C-, schools D.
• Market conditions: 363 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 156 units permitted in Eddy County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Eddy County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $148,410 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.41% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.02%
• DSCR: 1.80
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.38×
• Total profit: $16,214
• Equity at exit: $22,813

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.56×
• Total profit: $67,011
• Equity at exit: $13,229

Cash invested: $42,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88220

• Active inventory: 363
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,153 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$802
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$191 /mo · $2,295/yr
• Insurance: −$64
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$452
• Net cashflow: $643

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,338

Max offer price $153,000

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $749	-5% $696	+0% $643	+5% $590	+10% $538
Rent	-10% $473	-5% $558	+0% $643	+5% $728	+10% $813
Rate	-1.0pp $720	-0.5pp $682	base $643	+0.5pp $604	+1.0pp $563

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,250
• Closing costs: $4,590
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
506 Southern Sky St Carlsbad, NM	4.0	2.0	2100	$3,500	$1.67	44d	1	0.78mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending 713-char remark

   Show marketing remark (713 chars)

   Welcome to 415 Tampico St in Carlsbad, NM! This well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom double wide mobile home offers 1,512 sq ft of comfortable living space on a 6,000 sq ft lot. The home features central heating and air conditioning, providing year-round comfort. With a functional layout and spacious interior, this property is in livable condition and ready for immediate move-in or rental use. The lot is included in the sale, giving you full ownership of both the home and land—an excellent advantage for long-term value and flexibility. Whether you're looking for a primary residence or an investment property, this home presents a great opportunity in a growing area of Carlsbad. Don’t miss out

2. 2026-05-01
   price $153,000 713-char remark

   Show marketing remark (713 chars)

   Welcome to 415 Tampico St in Carlsbad, NM! This well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom double wide mobile home offers 1,512 sq ft of comfortable living space on a 6,000 sq ft lot. The home features central heating and air conditioning, providing year-round comfort. With a functional layout and spacious interior, this property is in livable condition and ready for immediate move-in or rental use. The lot is included in the sale, giving you full ownership of both the home and land—an excellent advantage for long-term value and flexibility. Whether you're looking for a primary residence or an investment property, this home presents a great opportunity in a growing area of Carlsbad. Don’t miss out

3. 2026-04-13
   price $157,000 713-char remark

   Show marketing remark (713 chars)

   Welcome to 415 Tampico St in Carlsbad, NM! This well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom double wide mobile home offers 1,512 sq ft of comfortable living space on a 6,000 sq ft lot. The home features central heating and air conditioning, providing year-round comfort. With a functional layout and spacious interior, this property is in livable condition and ready for immediate move-in or rental use. The lot is included in the sale, giving you full ownership of both the home and land—an excellent advantage for long-term value and flexibility. Whether you're looking for a primary residence or an investment property, this home presents a great opportunity in a growing area of Carlsbad. Don’t miss out

4. 2026-04-02
   listed $165,000 Active 713-char remark

   Show marketing remark (713 chars)

   Welcome to 415 Tampico St in Carlsbad, NM! This well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom double wide mobile home offers 1,512 sq ft of comfortable living space on a 6,000 sq ft lot. The home features central heating and air conditioning, providing year-round comfort. With a functional layout and spacious interior, this property is in livable condition and ready for immediate move-in or rental use. The lot is included in the sale, giving you full ownership of both the home and land—an excellent advantage for long-term value and flexibility. Whether you're looking for a primary residence or an investment property, this home presents a great opportunity in a growing area of Carlsbad. Don’t miss out

5. 2013-09-20
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,833
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,570
• − Property taxes: −$2,295
• − Insurance: −$765
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,067
• − Management: −$2,067
• − Depreciation: −$4,451
• Taxable income: $5,618
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,348
• After-tax cash flow: $6,371/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Carlsbad

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #20
• US rank: #7925

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C- Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carlsbad, NM
• County: Eddy County · 58,370 people
• City population: 39,828
• Metro: Carlsbad-Artesia, NM
• Population (ZIP): 39,828
• Household income: $78,162
• Rent vs Own: 26.0% rent · 74.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 661.0

Population outlook (Eddy County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 65,505 people
• By 2030: 69,797 · +6.6%
• By 2040: 79,191 · +20.9%
• By 2050: 89,199 · +36.2%
• By 2075: 115,829 · +76.8%
• By 2100: 129,336 · +97.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 46% Two or more races 22% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 24%

Political lean MEDSL · Eddy

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.9) · D 21.4% · R 77.3% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.2pp toward R · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -55.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.9 2020: R+51.8 2016: R+41.6 2012: R+33.5 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -283.72%
• Current HPI: 114.115
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Carlsbad-Artesia, NM
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-7.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — NMMLS
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $153,000 NMMLS
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $157,000 NMMLS
• 2026-04-02 Listed $165,000 NMMLS
• 2013-09-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+0.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $0 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.