204 Julian Davis Dr

Venus, TX 76084

$292,900D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,218 sqft · Built 2026 · Land · Pending · 44 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,073/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,536
• Tax + insurance: −$198
• HOA: −$37
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$435
• Net cashflow: $-133/mo
• Annual: $-1,601/yr
• Cap rate: 5.75%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.95%
• DSCR: 0.91
• 1% rule: 0.71%
• Cash to close: $82,012

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $293k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-133 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $269k (8.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $207k (29.2% below list).
• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($284k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $207k (29.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $23k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $21k appreciation (7.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#356 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Venus ISD (town): math 25% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #646 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Venus El (math 27% / reading 30%, grade F, #2,706 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 658 students, 82% FRL) — zoned schools average 82% FRL vs 60% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 426 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.0% in Venus — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.