204 Julian Davis Dr · Venus, TX 76084

$292,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,218 sqft · Land · 44 Days on market

Built 2026 6,752 sqft lot $37/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.8/30.0
• Appreciation +8.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to the Rio Grande, a thoughtfully designed floor plan that combines comfort, functionality, and style. The open-concept layout is perfect for everyday living, with a spacious primary suite that includes a private bath with a tub-shower combo and a generous walk-in closet. The beautifully appointed kitchen features sleek granite countertops, Whirlpool® appliances, and rich wood cabinetry, all part of our CompleteHome™ package that adds both elegance and efficiency. Step outside to a fully fenced backyard, offering the perfect space for grilling, relaxing, or play. Located just down the road from the community playground, gazebo, and private splashpad, this home offers the i

Key facts

• Rich wood cabinetry
• Whirlpool appliances
• Private bath

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• PRIVATE BATH
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• WHIRLPOOL APPLIANCES
• RICH WOOD CABINETRY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $293k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-133 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $269k (8.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $207k (29.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $207k (29.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.0% in Venus — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#356 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Venus ISD (town): math 25% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #646 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Venus El (math 27% / reading 30%, grade F, #2,706 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 658 students, 82% FRL) — zoned schools average 82% FRL vs 60% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 426 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $23k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $21k appreciation (7.3% local appreciation)).
• Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($284k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $207,319 (29.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.75%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.95%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.32% appreciation · 2.39% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.20×
• Total profit: $98,186
• Equity at exit: $209,136

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.52×
• Total profit: $288,480
• Equity at exit: $402,977

Cash invested: $82,012 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76084

• Home prices YoY: 2.1%
• Rents YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 426
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,073 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,536
• Tax from tax record: −$76 /mo · $915/yr
• Insurance: −$122
• HOA: −$37
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$435
• Net cashflow: $-133

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,242

Max offer price $269,328

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,225
• Closing costs: $8,787
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
418 Watson Ct Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1379	$2,210	$1.60	43d	1	0.12mi
430 Gib Woodall Dr Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1379	$2,000	$1.45	3d	1	0.21mi
501 Gib Woodall Dr Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1218	$1,945	$1.60	43d	1	0.26mi
427 Condie Russell Ave Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1218	$1,965	$1.61	43d	1	0.31mi
201 John Laurens Dr Venus, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–2.5	1975	$2,250	$1.14	1d	1	0.33mi
645 Blackland Dr Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1361	$1,950	$1.43	43d	1	0.44mi
628 Blackland Dr Venus, TX	4.0	2.5	1483	$2,200	$1.48	1d	1	0.44mi
656-660 Wheatfield DR Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1301	$1,950	$1.50	1d	1	0.49mi
663 Wheatfield Dr Venus, TX	2.0	2.0	1274	$1,695	$1.33	1d	1	0.50mi
705 Wheatfield Dr Venus, TX	2.0	1.5	1134	$1,500	$1.32	24d	1	0.52mi
723 Wheatfield Dr Venus, TX	2.0	2.0	1274	$1,695	$1.33	43d	1	0.53mi
645 Fallow Dr Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1301	$1,950	$1.50	7d	1	0.53mi
733 Wheatfield Dr Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1347	$1,795	$1.33	24d	1	0.55mi
601 Harvest Moon Dr Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1347	$1,795	$1.33	43d	1	0.55mi
737 Wheatfield Dr Venus, TX	2.0	1.5	1134	$1,595	$1.41	24d	1	0.55mi
729 Fallow Dr Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1301	$1,995	$1.53	43d	1	0.57mi
748 Wheatfield Dr Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1361	$1,950	$1.43	43d	1	0.58mi
620-616 Harvest Moon Dr Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1307	$1,950	$1.49	43d	1	0.59mi
704 Harvest Moon Dr Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1361	$1,850	$1.36	44d	1	0.63mi
712 Harvest Moon Dr Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1301	$1,895	$1.46	24d	1	0.64mi
261 Heritage Hills Pkwy Venus, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	912	$2,305	$2.53	1d	1	0.69mi
721 Harvest Moon Dr Venus, TX	2.0	1.5	1134	$1,595	$1.41	1d	1	0.70mi
728 Fallow Dr Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1347	$1,795	$1.33	15d	1	0.70mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $37 · $444/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-03-06
   historical $2,120
2. 2026-03-06
   status Pending
3. 2026-01-21
   listed $292,900 Active
4. 2026-01-15
   historical
5. 2026-01-03
   listed $2,120
6. 2025-12-10
   listed $292,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $915 · $76/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,360 · $447/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,445/yr (+$370/mo · 486.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,878
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,407
• − Property taxes: −$915
• − Insurance: −$1,464
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,990
• − Management: −$1,990
• − HOA: −$444
• − Depreciation: −$8,521
• Taxable loss: −$6,853
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,645
• After-tax cash flow: $44/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Venus ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844010
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $50,394
• Composite: 24.97/100
• National rank: #7563
• State rank: #646 of 826 in TX

Livability — Venus

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #356
• US rank: #7724

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Venus, TX
• County: Johnson County · 147,987 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,097
• Household income: $102,115
• Rent vs Own: 12.2% rent · 87.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 70.0

Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,678 people
• By 2030: 189,208 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 207,261 · +15.4%
• By 2050: 223,064 · +24.1%
• By 2075: 259,979 · +44.7%
• By 2100: 275,395 · +53.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 24% Black 11% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 18% Arabic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.4) · D 23.9% · R 75.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -51.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.4 2020: R+53.0 2016: R+58.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.32%
• Current HPI: 355.74
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.39%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-99.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-06 Rental Removed $2,120 NTREIS
• 2026-03-06 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-01-21 Listed $292,900 NTREIS
• 2026-01-15 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2026-01-03 Listed for Rent $2,120 NTREIS
• 2025-12-10 Listed $292,900 NTREIS

Property tax history

+7.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $915 · +21.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.