398 W Napier Ave

St. Joseph, MI 49022

$279,000F

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,364 sqft · Built 1913 · SingleFamily · Active · 30 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $900/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,463
• Tax + insurance: −$278
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$189
• Net cashflow: $-1,030/mo
• Annual: $-12,356/yr
• Cap rate: 1.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -15.82%
• DSCR: 0.30
• 1% rule: 0.32%
• Cash to close: $78,120

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $279k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $97k (65.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $90k (67.7% below list).
• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($275k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $90k (67.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Benton Harbor Area Schools (urban): math 4% / reading 7% proficiency, ranked #732 of 760 in MI (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 89% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Fair Plain Middle School (math 0% / reading 4%, grade F, #493 of 493 statewide, top 100%, 288 students, 97% FRL); Fair Plain Middle School (math 0% / reading 4%, grade F, #493 of 493 statewide, top 100%, 288 students, 97% FRL); Benton Harbor High School (math 5% / reading 5%, grade F, #704 of 713 statewide, top 100%, 495 students, 97% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1913 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 184 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 397 units permitted in Berrien County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Berrien County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 32 sale attempts since 32y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $128k; list at $279k implies a 117% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 1.9% vs local median 3.0% in St. Joseph — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1913 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.