38 Kelly Cir

Waterville, ME 04330

$379,900B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,728 sqft · Built 2000 · MultiFamily · Active · 31 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,196/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,992
• Tax + insurance: −$321
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,091
• Net cashflow: $1,792/mo
• Annual: $21,501/yr
• Cap rate: 11.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.21%
• DSCR: 1.90
• 1% rule: 1.37%
• Cash to close: $106,372

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $380k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($22k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $380k).
• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($369k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $369k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#34 in ME, #3,498 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, employment D, amenities F.
• RSU 18 (rural): math 88% / reading 89% proficiency, ranked #36 of 112 in ME (top 32%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.3%/yr); 54 active listings in the ZIP; 460 units permitted in Kennebec County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kennebec County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $168k; list at $380k implies a 126% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.3% rent growth), your $106k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• At $5,196/mo this rent would consume 114% of the median local household income ($55k/yr) (locally 760% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.