38 Kelly Cir · Waterville, ME 04330

$379,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,728 sqft · MultiFamily · 31 Days on market

Built 2000 2.39 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +7.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious double wide home with lots of outdoor space. This 3 bedroom, two bath home has lots of natural light. A 3 season screened deck offers a great space for entertaining. 2 car garage with addtional space and a hard wired generator is included.

Key facts

• En suite
• Oversized kitchen
• Large island

Tags

• OVERSIZED KITCHEN
• ABUNDANT CABINETRY
• LARGE ISLAND
• COZY PROPANE FIREPLACE
• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• EN SUITE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage; Paved parking with space for 5–10 vehicles
• Utilities: Well water; Gas water heater; Generator hookup for electric
• Home design: Mobile home; Single-story (first-floor living); Built in 2000
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal and shingle roof; Public-record building area: 1,728 total
• Exterior features: Level lot; Near turnpike/interstate; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first floor
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the first floor
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Luxury vinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Pellet stove; Wood stove; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Seven total rooms; Furnished: negotiable; Carpet, ceramic tile, and luxury vinyl flooring; One fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Mud room on the first floor (utility/laundry area potential)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $380k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($22k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $380k).
• Recommended offer: $369k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#34 in ME, #3,498 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, employment D, amenities F.
• RSU 18 (rural): math 88% / reading 89% proficiency, ranked #36 of 112 in ME (top 32%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.3%/yr); 54 active listings in the ZIP; 460 units permitted in Kennebec County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,196/mo this rent would consume 114% of the median local household income ($55k/yr) (locally 760% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kennebec County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.3% rent growth), your $106k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($369k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $168k; list at $380k implies a 126% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $368,503 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.37% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.21%
• DSCR: 1.90
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.35% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.61×
• Total profit: $65,016
• Equity at exit: $56,644

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.42×
• Total profit: $257,238
• Equity at exit: $32,847

Cash invested: $106,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Maine: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Portland has rent control referendum (2020); strong habitability; security deposit caps.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 04330

• Home prices YoY: -4.7%
• Rents YoY: 5.3%
• Active inventory: 54
• Price-to-rent: 18.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,196 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,992
• Tax from tax record: −$163 /mo · $1,951/yr
• Insurance: −$158
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,091
• Net cashflow: $1,792

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,928

Max offer price $379,900

Occupancy floor 61%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $2,007	-5% $1,899	+0% $1,792	+5% $1,684	+10% $1,577
Rent	-10% $1,381	-5% $1,586	+0% $1,792	+5% $1,997	+10% $2,202
Rate	-1.0pp $1,983	-0.5pp $1,888	base $1,792	+0.5pp $1,693	+1.0pp $1,593

3-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 3× units	3	2	$5,196
Total (3 units)			$5,196

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $94,975
• Closing costs: $11,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $379,900 Active 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $379,900 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $379,900 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $379,900 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $379,900 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   price $379,900 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $389,900 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $389,900 Active 23 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $389,900 Active 22 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $389,900 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $389,900 Active 18 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $389,900 Active 17 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $399,900 Active 14 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $399,900 Active 13 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $399,900 Active 12 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $399,900 Active 11 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $399,900 Active 10 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $399,900 Active 9 DOM
19. 2026-05-21
    listed $399,900 Active
20. 2021-01-14
    soldstatus $168,000 Closed 248-char remark

    Show marketing remark (248 chars)

    Spacious double wide home with lots of outdoor space. This 3 bedroom, two bath home has lots of natural light. A 3 season screened deck offers a great space for entertaining. 2 car garage with addtional space and a hard wired generator is included.

21. 2020-11-30
    status Pending 248-char remark

    Show marketing remark (248 chars)

    Spacious double wide home with lots of outdoor space. This 3 bedroom, two bath home has lots of natural light. A 3 season screened deck offers a great space for entertaining. 2 car garage with addtional space and a hard wired generator is included.

22. 2020-11-23
    listed $175,000 Active 248-char remark

    Show marketing remark (248 chars)

    Spacious double wide home with lots of outdoor space. This 3 bedroom, two bath home has lots of natural light. A 3 season screened deck offers a great space for entertaining. 2 car garage with addtional space and a hard wired generator is included.

23. 2004-10-03
    listed $135,000
24. 2004-07-23
    listed $157,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast ME · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,951 · $163/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,559 · $297/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,608/yr (+$134/mo · 82.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 11% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $62,352
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,280
• − Property taxes: −$1,951
• − Insurance: −$1,900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,988
• − Management: −$4,988
• − Depreciation: −$11,052
• Taxable income: $16,193
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,886
• After-tax cash flow: $17,614/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: RSU 18
• NCES district ID: 2314779
• Math proficiency: 88% ▲ 53.00%
• Reading proficiency: 89% ▲ 32.00%
• Median HH income: $55,125
• Composite: 75.2/100
• National rank: #139
• State rank: #36 of 112 in ME

Livability — Waterville

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #34
• US rank: #3498

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Kennebec County · 54,560 people
• Metro: Augusta-Waterville, ME
• Population (ZIP): 26,690
• Household income: $54,775
• Rent vs Own: 37.8% rent · 62.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 760.0

Population outlook (Kennebec County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 115,421 people
• By 2030: 111,852 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 103,757 · -10.1%
• By 2050: 95,710 · -17.1%
• By 2075: 78,172 · -32.3%
• By 2100: 59,500 · -48.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 18% Slovak 4% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kennebec

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 50.2% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.5pp toward R · 2008: 14.8pp · 2024: -2.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.8 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+3.7 2012: D+13.5 2008: D+14.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -17.46%
• Current HPI: 353.9463
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.35%
• Metro: Augusta-Waterville, ME
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+154.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $399,900 MREIS
• 2021-01-14 Sold (MLS) $168,000 MREIS
• 2020-11-30 Pending — MREIS
• 2020-11-23 Listed $175,000 MREIS
• 2004-10-03 Listed $135,000 MREIS
• 2004-07-23 Listed $157,000 MREIS

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,951 · +5.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.