12820 NE 233rd Ln

Raiford, FL 32083

$215,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,525 sqft · Built 1958 · SingleFamily · Active · 53 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,356/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax + insurance: −$154
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$285
• Net cashflow: $-210/mo
• Annual: $-2,517/yr
• Cap rate: 5.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.18%
• DSCR: 0.81
• 1% rule: 0.63%
• Cash to close: $60,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $215k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-210 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $178k (17.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $136k (36.9% below list).
• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($209k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $136k (36.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#860 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: crime D+, schools D, amenities F.
• Union (town): math 62% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #17 of 73 in FL (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 9 active listings in the ZIP; 45 units permitted in Union County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Union County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 5 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $103k; list at $215k implies a 108% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.