12820 NE 233rd Ln · Raiford, FL 32083

$215,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,525 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 53 Days on market

Built 1958 $141/sqft · 10% below area Est $238k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.9/15.0
• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Add this one to your rental portfolio or call it your home. This 3 bedroom 1 bath home is nestled on a spacious half-acre corner lot. This cozy residence boasts with a large concrete block workshop, complete with electrical and plumbing. This property offers endless possibilities for creative projects or hobbies.

Key facts

• Garage
• Built 1958
• Listed 52 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached parking; 1-space carport; Has attached garage; Has carport
• Utilities: Electricity connected
• Home design: Single Family Residence
• Exterior features: Ranch-style single family residential use

Interior

• Kitchen: No kitchen appliances specified
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: No built-in appliances listed
• Laundry & utility: No laundry appliances specified

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-210 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $178k (17.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $136k (36.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $136k (36.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#860 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: crime D+, schools D, amenities F.
• Union (town): math 62% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #17 of 73 in FL (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 9 active listings in the ZIP; 45 units permitted in Union County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Union County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($209k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $103k; list at $215k implies a 108% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $135,619 (36.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.18%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 13.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $238,101
• List price: $215,000
• Delta: -9.70%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12892 NE 233rd Ln	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,472 (-4%)	11mo	$330,000	$224	82
12325 NE County Road 793	0.73mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (+5%)	20mo	$325,000	$203	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.21×
• Total profit: $12,435
• Equity at exit: $96,673

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.04×
• Total profit: $62,880
• Equity at exit: $148,985

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32083

• Active inventory: 9
• Price-to-rent: 13.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,356 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$64 /mo · $769/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$285
• Net cashflow: $-210

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,622

Max offer price $177,946

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-88	-5% $-149	+0% $-210	+5% $-271	+10% $-331
Rent	-10% $-317	-5% $-263	+0% $-210	+5% $-156	+10% $-103
Rate	-1.0pp $-101	-0.5pp $-155	base $-210	+0.5pp $-265	+1.0pp $-322

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $215,000 Active 53 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $215,000 Active 51 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $215,000 Active 50 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $215,000 Active 49 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $215,000 Active 48 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $215,000 Active 47 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $215,000 Active 45 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $215,000 Active 44 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $215,000 Active 41 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $215,000 Active 40 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $215,000 Active 39 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $215,000 Active 36 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $215,000 Active 35 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $215,000 Active 34 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $215,000 Active 33 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $215,000 Active 32 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $215,000 Active 31 DOM
18. 2026-04-28
    listed $225,000 Active 2424-char remark
19. 2024-10-16
    historical 314-char remark

    Show marketing remark (314 chars)

    Add this one to your rental portfolio or call it your home. This 3 bedroom 1 bath home is nestled on a spacious half-acre corner lot. This cozy residence boasts with a large concrete block workshop, complete with electrical and plumbing. This property offers endless possibilities for creative projects or hobbies.

20. 2024-09-16
    price $190,000 314-char remark

    Show marketing remark (314 chars)

    Add this one to your rental portfolio or call it your home. This 3 bedroom 1 bath home is nestled on a spacious half-acre corner lot. This cozy residence boasts with a large concrete block workshop, complete with electrical and plumbing. This property offers endless possibilities for creative projects or hobbies.

21. 2024-07-12
    price $199,900 314-char remark

    Show marketing remark (314 chars)

    Add this one to your rental portfolio or call it your home. This 3 bedroom 1 bath home is nestled on a spacious half-acre corner lot. This cozy residence boasts with a large concrete block workshop, complete with electrical and plumbing. This property offers endless possibilities for creative projects or hobbies.

22. 2024-06-13
    price $219,900 314-char remark

    Show marketing remark (314 chars)

    Add this one to your rental portfolio or call it your home. This 3 bedroom 1 bath home is nestled on a spacious half-acre corner lot. This cozy residence boasts with a large concrete block workshop, complete with electrical and plumbing. This property offers endless possibilities for creative projects or hobbies.

23. 2024-05-17
    price $239,900 314-char remark

    Show marketing remark (314 chars)

    Add this one to your rental portfolio or call it your home. This 3 bedroom 1 bath home is nestled on a spacious half-acre corner lot. This cozy residence boasts with a large concrete block workshop, complete with electrical and plumbing. This property offers endless possibilities for creative projects or hobbies.

24. 2024-04-16
    listed $249,900 Active 314-char remark

    Show marketing remark (314 chars)

    Add this one to your rental portfolio or call it your home. This 3 bedroom 1 bath home is nestled on a spacious half-acre corner lot. This cozy residence boasts with a large concrete block workshop, complete with electrical and plumbing. This property offers endless possibilities for creative projects or hobbies.

25. 2021-12-27
    historical

    Show marketing remark (262 chars)

    Cozy country home located in Union County is ready for new owners. This turn key home has so much to offer... Large living room - two dining areas, fenced back yard, a LARGE concrete building- perfect for storage, hobbies, or just hanging out with good company.

26. 2021-11-04
    listed $210,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (262 chars)

    Cozy country home located in Union County is ready for new owners. This turn key home has so much to offer... Large living room - two dining areas, fenced back yard, a LARGE concrete building- perfect for storage, hobbies, or just hanging out with good company.

27. 2018-07-10
    soldstatus $103,300
28. 2016-12-29
    soldstatus $35,000
29. 2016-07-01
    listed $60,000
30. 2016-01-19
    historical
31. 2015-10-23
    listed $55,000
32. 2001-08-14
    soldstatus $66,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $769 · $64/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,784 · $149/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,016/yr (+$85/mo · 132.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,274
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$769
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,302
• − Management: −$1,302
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable loss: −$6,471
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,553
• After-tax cash flow: $-964/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Union
• NCES district ID: 1201890
• Math proficiency: 62% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $40,908
• Composite: 48.59/100
• National rank: #2111
• State rank: #17 of 73 in FL

Livability — Raiford

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #860
• US rank: #22145

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,627

Population outlook (Union County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 14,613 people
• By 2030: 14,322 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 13,780 · -5.7%
• By 2050: 13,325 · -8.8%
• By 2075: 11,965 · -18.1%
• By 2100: 9,102 · -37.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Black 23% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Iranian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Union

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.3) · D 15.6% · R 83.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.4pp toward R · 2008: -49.9pp · 2024: -68.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.3 2020: R+65.3 2016: R+62.4 2012: R+49.0 2008: R+49.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+225.8% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $215,000 realMLS
• 2026-04-28 Listed $225,000 realMLS
• 2024-10-16 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2024-09-16 Price Changed $190,000 realMLS
• 2024-07-12 Price Changed $199,900 realMLS
• 2024-06-13 Price Changed $219,900 realMLS
• 2024-05-17 Price Changed $239,900 realMLS
• 2024-04-16 Listed $249,900 realMLS
• 2021-12-27 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2021-11-04 Listed $210,000 realMLS
• 2018-07-10 Sold (Public Records) $103,300 Public Records
• 2016-12-29 Sold (MLS) $35,000 realMLS
• 2016-07-01 Listed $60,000 realMLS
• 2016-01-19 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-10-23 Listed $55,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-08-14 Sold (Public Records) $66,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $769 · +4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.