4328 E Main St

Lemon Grove, FL 33873

$149,900F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,220 sqft · Built 1970 · SingleFamily · Active · 212 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,231/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax + insurance: −$159
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$258
• Net cashflow: $27/mo
• Annual: $321/yr
• Cap rate: 6.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.77%
• DSCR: 1.03
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $41,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $27 ($321/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $123k (17.9% below list).
• It's been on market 212 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $123k (17.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#758 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Hardee (town): math 46% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #50 of 73 in FL (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Wauchula Elementary School (math 48% / reading 50%, grade D, #1,134 of 2,144 statewide, top 54%, 616 students, 75% FRL); Hardee Senior High School (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #411 of 667 statewide, top 62%, 1,403 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools at 71% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 100 active listings in the ZIP; 123 units permitted in Hardee County in 2024 (22 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hardee County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 5 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $150k implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 212 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.