17325 Halifax Path

Lakeville, MN 55044

$439,900D

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,226 sqft · Built 1989 · SingleFamily · Active · 49 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,805/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,307
• Tax + insurance: −$552
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$589
• Net cashflow: $-643/mo
• Annual: $-7,720/yr
• Cap rate: 4.54%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.27%
• DSCR: 0.72
• 1% rule: 0.64%
• Cash to close: $123,172

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $440k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-643 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $326k (25.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $280k (36.2% below list).
• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($427k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $280k (36.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#25 in MN, #711 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities D+, commute F, cost of living F.
• Lakeville Public School District (suburban): math 57% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #21 of 301 in MN (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 713 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,134 units permitted in Dakota County in 2024 (898 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Dakota County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 6 sale attempts since 29y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 3.2% in Lakeville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.