1285 Lancers Ln

Redding, CA 96003

$899,000B-

None bd · None ba · — sqft · Built 1986 · MultiFamily · Active · 605 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $10,721/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,714
• Tax + insurance: −$716
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,251
• Net cashflow: $3,039/mo
• Annual: $36,469/yr
• Cap rate: 10.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.49%
• DSCR: 1.64
• 1% rule: 1.19%
• Cash to close: $251,720

Investor read

• This is a 6 × 2-bed/2.0-bath units multifamily listed at $899k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($36k/yr) — positive. Per door: $507/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($11k rent vs $899k).
• It's been on market 605 days — a 12% lower offer ($791k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $791k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $27k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#106 in CA, #3,726 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, cost of living F.
• Shasta Union High (urban): math 41% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #122 of 517 in CA (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Boulder Creek Elementary (math 44% / reading 47%, grade D-, #485 of 1,571 statewide, top 31%, 874 students, 53% FRL); Parsons Junior High (math 26% / reading 42%, grade F, #192 of 498 statewide, top 39%, 483 students, 84% FRL); Enterprise High (math 33% / reading 61%, grade D-, #389 of 1,170 statewide, top 35%, 1,109 students, 60% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 16% district-wide (50 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.0%/yr); 393 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 246 units permitted in Shasta County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Shasta County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Current owner paid $100k; list at $899k implies a 799% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.0% rent growth), your $252k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 3.3% in Redding — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $10,721/mo this rent would consume 178% of the median local household income ($72k/yr) (locally 1668% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 605 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.