Canyon Plan

Indiantown, FL 34956

$323,990D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,513 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 341 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,736/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,976
• Tax + insurance: −$628
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$574
• Net cashflow: $-443/mo
• Annual: $-5,314/yr
• Cap rate: 4.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.04%
• DSCR: 0.78
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $105,502

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $324k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-443 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $313k (3.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $274k (15.6% below list).
• It's been on market 341 days — a 12% lower offer ($285k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $274k (15.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $28k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (6.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#829 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Martin (suburban): math 52% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #24 of 73 in FL (top 33%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 135 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 737 units permitted in Martin County in 2024 (167 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Martin County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$44k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 10.9% in Indiantown — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 341 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Minor: Paint — Paint appears slightly faded