Canyon Plan · Indiantown, FL 34956

$323,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,513 sqft · SingleFamily · 341 Days on market

Fair condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +8.3/10.0
• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Past the foyer, an open kitchen flows to the dining space, great room and outside patio. Private primary suite offers a spacious area to relax and a large walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Outside patio
• Dining space
• Great room

Tags

• OPEN KITCHEN
• DINING SPACE
• GREAT ROOM
• OUTSIDE PATIO
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• LARGE WALK-IN CLOSET

🏗️ New construction. The $323,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $377,120.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $324k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-445 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $313k (3.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $274k (15.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $274k (15.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 10.9% in Indiantown — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#829 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Martin (suburban): math 52% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #24 of 73 in FL (top 33%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 135 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 737 units permitted in Martin County in 2024 (167 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $28k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (6.7% local appreciation)).
• Martin County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$44k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 341 days — a 12% lower offer ($285k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $273,553 (15.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 341 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.06%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $377,120
• List price: $323,990
• Delta: -14.09%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14312 SW New Dawn Rd	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,513 (0%)	1mo	$336,000	$222	95
14306 SW New Dawn Rd	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,513 (0%)	3mo	$332,000	$219	94
14302 SW New Dawn Rd	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,513 (0%)	5mo	$337,000	$223	93
14518 SW New Dawn Rd	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,513 (0%)	1mo	$344,890	$228	93
14316 SW New Dawn Rd	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,513 (0%)	6mo	$316,000	$209	91
14210 SW New Dawn Rd	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,513 (0%)	6mo	$319,999	$211	89
14220 SW New Dawn Rd	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,513 (0%)	10mo	$338,690	$224	85
14510 SW New Dawn Rd	0.15mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,607 (+6%)	1mo	$363,590	$226	77
14418 SW New Dawn Rd	0.08mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,607 (+6%)	5mo	$354,590	$221	77
14314 SW New Dawn Rd	0.08mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,607 (+6%)	5mo	$352,590	$219	76
14733 SW Little Indian Ave	0.69mi	3/3.0	1,512 (-0%)	6mo	$375,000	$248	58
14508 SW Little Indian Ave SE	0.60mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,347 (-11%)	3mo	$325,000	$241	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.65% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.90×
• Total profit: $95,326
• Equity at exit: $252,766

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.84×
• Total profit: $299,371
• Equity at exit: $472,577

Cash invested: $105,594 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34956

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 135
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,736 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,978
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$471 /mo · $5,657/yr
• Insurance: −$157
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$574
• Net cashflow: $-445

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,299

Max offer price $312,710

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-185	-5% $-315	+0% $-445	+5% $-575	+10% $-706
Rent	-10% $-661	-5% $-553	+0% $-445	+5% $-337	+10% $-229
Rate	-1.0pp $-255	-0.5pp $-349	base $-445	+0.5pp $-543	+1.0pp $-642

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $94,280
• Closing costs: $11,314
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15817 SW Winter Rd Indiantown, FL	3.0	2.5	1428	$2,300	$1.61	14d	1	0.20mi
15693 SW Twilight St Indiantown, FL	4.0	2.5	1895	$3,300	$1.74	22d	1	0.28mi
15404 SW American St Indiantown, FL	4.0	2.0	1850	$3,000	$1.62	14d	1	0.31mi
15760 SW Hammock Way Indiantown, FL	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.5	1918	$2,420	$1.26	2d	41	1.11mi

Listing history 38 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $323,990 Active 341 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $323,990 Active 340 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $323,990 Active 339 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $323,990 Active 338 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $323,990 Active 336 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $323,990 Active 335 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $323,990 Active 333 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   pricedays on market $323,990 Active 332 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   price $345,290 Active 331 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $340,890 Active 331 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $340,890 Active 330 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $339,890 Active 326 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $339,890 Active 325 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $339,890 Active 324 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $339,890 Active 323 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $339,890 Active 322 DOM
17. 2026-04-16
    price $339,890 170-char remark

    Show marketing remark (170 chars)

    Past the foyer, an open kitchen flows to the dining space, great room and outside patio. Private primary suite offers a spacious area to relax and a large walk-in closet.

18. 2026-04-13
    price $336,000 170-char remark

    Show marketing remark (170 chars)

    Past the foyer, an open kitchen flows to the dining space, great room and outside patio. Private primary suite offers a spacious area to relax and a large walk-in closet.

19. 2026-03-01
    price $329,990 170-char remark

    Show marketing remark (170 chars)

    Past the foyer, an open kitchen flows to the dining space, great room and outside patio. Private primary suite offers a spacious area to relax and a large walk-in closet.

20. 2026-02-25
    price $324,990 170-char remark

    Show marketing remark (170 chars)

    Past the foyer, an open kitchen flows to the dining space, great room and outside patio. Private primary suite offers a spacious area to relax and a large walk-in closet.

21. 2026-02-05
    price $329,990 170-char remark

    Show marketing remark (170 chars)

    Past the foyer, an open kitchen flows to the dining space, great room and outside patio. Private primary suite offers a spacious area to relax and a large walk-in closet.

22. 2026-01-28
    price $339,790 170-char remark

    Show marketing remark (170 chars)

    Past the foyer, an open kitchen flows to the dining space, great room and outside patio. Private primary suite offers a spacious area to relax and a large walk-in closet.

23. 2026-01-02
    price $346,590 170-char remark

    Show marketing remark (170 chars)

    Past the foyer, an open kitchen flows to the dining space, great room and outside patio. Private primary suite offers a spacious area to relax and a large walk-in closet.

24. 2025-12-15
    price $324,090 170-char remark

    Show marketing remark (170 chars)

    Past the foyer, an open kitchen flows to the dining space, great room and outside patio. Private primary suite offers a spacious area to relax and a large walk-in closet.

25. 2025-11-17
    status Active 170-char remark

    Show marketing remark (170 chars)

    Past the foyer, an open kitchen flows to the dining space, great room and outside patio. Private primary suite offers a spacious area to relax and a large walk-in closet.

26. 2025-11-17
    price $342,090 170-char remark

    Show marketing remark (170 chars)

    Past the foyer, an open kitchen flows to the dining space, great room and outside patio. Private primary suite offers a spacious area to relax and a large walk-in closet.

27. 2025-11-14
    historical 170-char remark

    Show marketing remark (170 chars)

    Past the foyer, an open kitchen flows to the dining space, great room and outside patio. Private primary suite offers a spacious area to relax and a large walk-in closet.

28. 2025-10-31
    price $319,999 170-char remark

    Show marketing remark (170 chars)

    Past the foyer, an open kitchen flows to the dining space, great room and outside patio. Private primary suite offers a spacious area to relax and a large walk-in closet.

29. 2025-10-10
    price $341,090 170-char remark

    Show marketing remark (170 chars)

    Past the foyer, an open kitchen flows to the dining space, great room and outside patio. Private primary suite offers a spacious area to relax and a large walk-in closet.

30. 2025-09-27
    price $346,090 170-char remark

    Show marketing remark (170 chars)

    Past the foyer, an open kitchen flows to the dining space, great room and outside patio. Private primary suite offers a spacious area to relax and a large walk-in closet.

31. 2025-09-26
    price $343,090 170-char remark

    Show marketing remark (170 chars)

    Past the foyer, an open kitchen flows to the dining space, great room and outside patio. Private primary suite offers a spacious area to relax and a large walk-in closet.

32. 2025-09-19
    price $346,090 170-char remark

    Show marketing remark (170 chars)

    Past the foyer, an open kitchen flows to the dining space, great room and outside patio. Private primary suite offers a spacious area to relax and a large walk-in closet.

33. 2025-09-11
    price $343,090 170-char remark

    Show marketing remark (170 chars)

    Past the foyer, an open kitchen flows to the dining space, great room and outside patio. Private primary suite offers a spacious area to relax and a large walk-in closet.

34. 2025-09-03
    price $319,990 170-char remark

    Show marketing remark (170 chars)

    Past the foyer, an open kitchen flows to the dining space, great room and outside patio. Private primary suite offers a spacious area to relax and a large walk-in closet.

35. 2025-08-03
    price $314,990 170-char remark

    Show marketing remark (170 chars)

    Past the foyer, an open kitchen flows to the dining space, great room and outside patio. Private primary suite offers a spacious area to relax and a large walk-in closet.

36. 2025-07-14
    price $309,990 170-char remark

    Show marketing remark (170 chars)

    Past the foyer, an open kitchen flows to the dining space, great room and outside patio. Private primary suite offers a spacious area to relax and a large walk-in closet.

37. 2025-07-13
    price $338,690 170-char remark

    Show marketing remark (170 chars)

    Past the foyer, an open kitchen flows to the dining space, great room and outside patio. Private primary suite offers a spacious area to relax and a large walk-in closet.

38. 2025-07-09
    listed $328,690 Active 170-char remark

    Show marketing remark (170 chars)

    Past the foyer, an open kitchen flows to the dining space, great room and outside patio. Private primary suite offers a spacious area to relax and a large walk-in closet.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,826
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,125
• − Property taxes: −$5,657
• − Insurance: −$1,886
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,626
• − Management: −$2,626
• − Depreciation: −$10,971
• Taxable loss: −$12,064
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,895
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,446/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

The home is in fair condition with average systems and minimal repairs needed. Painting and flooring updates would significantly enhance its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Paint — Paint appears slightly faded

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Rental Flooring — Updated flooring improves rental appeal and reduces maintenance costs

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Paint · Paint appears slightly faded	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 1 items		$500–3,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Rental Flooring — Updated flooring improves rental appeal and reduces maintenance costs ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Martin
• NCES district ID: 1201290
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,482
• Composite: 45.1/100
• National rank: #2690
• State rank: #24 of 73 in FL

Livability — Indiantown

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #829
• US rank: #20298

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Indiantown, FL
• Population (ZIP): 9,639

Population outlook (Martin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 172,383 people
• By 2030: 180,192 · +4.5%
• By 2040: 194,114 · +12.6%
• By 2050: 204,992 · +18.9%
• By 2075: 229,641 · +33.2%
• By 2100: 232,146 · +34.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% Black 24% White 24% Two or more races 16% Native American 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 42%

Political lean MEDSL · Martin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.1) · D 34.1% · R 65.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.5pp toward R · 2008: -13.6pp · 2024: -31.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.1 2020: R+24.6 2016: R+26.9 2012: R+22.9 2008: R+13.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.65%
• Current HPI: 561.896
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+3.4% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $339,890 Zillow
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $336,000 Zillow
• 2026-03-01 Price Changed $329,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-25 Price Changed $324,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-05 Price Changed $329,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-28 Price Changed $339,790 Zillow
• 2026-01-02 Price Changed $346,590 Zillow
• 2025-12-15 Price Changed $324,090 Zillow
• 2025-11-17 Price Changed $342,090 Zillow
• 2025-11-17 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-11-14 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-10-31 Price Changed $319,999 Zillow
• 2025-10-10 Price Changed $341,090 Zillow
• 2025-09-27 Price Changed $346,090 Zillow
• 2025-09-26 Price Changed $343,090 Zillow
• 2025-09-19 Price Changed $346,090 Zillow
• 2025-09-11 Price Changed $343,090 Zillow
• 2025-09-03 Price Changed $319,990 Zillow
• 2025-08-03 Price Changed $314,990 Zillow
• 2025-07-14 Price Changed $309,990 Zillow
• 2025-07-13 Price Changed $338,690 Zillow
• 2025-07-09 Listed $328,690 Zillow