437 NW 16 St

Lincoln, NE 68528

$225,000D+

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,560 sqft · Built 1975 · SingleFamily · Active · 83 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,839/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax + insurance: −$325
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$386
• Net cashflow: $-52/mo
• Annual: $-629/yr
• Cap rate: 6.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.00%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $63,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $225k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-52 ($-629/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $216k (4.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $184k (18.3% below list).
• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($212k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $184k (18.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#5 in NE, #545 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+.
• Lincoln Public Schools (urban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #59 of 111 in NE (top 53%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lakeview Elementary School (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #390 of 502 statewide, top 80%, 388 students, 75% FRL); Park Middle School (math 37% / reading 37%, grade F, #99 of 128 statewide, top 79%, 834 students, 68% FRL); Lincoln High School (math 38% / reading 41%, grade F, #184 of 261 statewide, top 76%, 2,196 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools average 67% FRL vs 37% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 37% at this address vs 52% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Lincoln Public Schools average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 43 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,940 units permitted in Lancaster County in 2024 (895 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lancaster County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.0% in Lincoln — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?