437 NW 16 St · Lincoln, NE 68528

$225,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,560 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 83 Days on market

Built 1975 6,098 sqft lot $144/sqft · 14% below area Est $262k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.9/15.0
• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

PENDING CONTRACT TAKING BACK UP OFFERS. Move in ready home in NW Lincoln! Offering three bedrooms on the main level and one bathroom. The spaces really are as big as the pictures show! Vinyl flooring throughout the main level and basement for easy cleaning. Sparkling clean + updated kitchen with solid wood cabinets and all appliances included. Large finished basement with tons of value add opportunities like another bathroom or bedroom(s). Storage area with room to have your dream laundry room! Off the kitchen there is a nice patio door that walks out onto the deck, over looking the spacious backyard with two sheds and mostly fenced in yard. See this one before it slips away!

Key facts

• Solid wood cabinets
• Patio door
• Vinyl flooring

Tags

• VINYL FLOORING
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• SOLID WOOD CABINETS
• FINISHED BASEMENT
• STORAGE AREA
• PATIO DOOR

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-52 ($-629/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $216k (4.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $184k (18.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $184k (18.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.0% in Lincoln — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#5 in NE, #545 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+.
• Lincoln Public Schools (urban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #59 of 111 in NE (top 53%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lakeview Elementary School (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #390 of 502 statewide, top 80%, 388 students, 75% FRL); Park Middle School (math 37% / reading 37%, grade F, #99 of 128 statewide, top 79%, 834 students, 68% FRL); Lincoln High School (math 38% / reading 41%, grade F, #184 of 261 statewide, top 76%, 2,196 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools average 67% FRL vs 37% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 37% at this address vs 52% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Lincoln Public Schools average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 43 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,940 units permitted in Lancaster County in 2024 (895 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lancaster County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($212k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $183,909 (18.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.00%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $262,484
• List price: $225,000
• Delta: -14.28%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
437 NW 16 St	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,560 (0%)	1mo	$225,000	$144	97
300 N Coddington Ave	0.30mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,558 (-0%)	1mo	$260,000	$167	78
1420 W Q St	0.14mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,546 (-1%)	14mo	$219,000	$142	73
401 NW 16th St	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,413 (-9%)	8mo	$257,000	$182	72
401 N Coddington Ave	0.32mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,549 (-1%)	19mo	$230,000	$148	61
411 NW 20th St	0.25mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,412 (-10%)	8mo	$189,000	$134	61
112 W Lakeshore Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,676 (+7%)	10mo	$675,000	$403	57
601 Pier 1	0.69mi	3/3.0	1,500 (-4%)	2mo	$630,000	$420	54
551 NW 9 St	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,750 (+12%)	10mo	$250,000	$143	48
521 NW 9th St	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,785 (+14%)	15mo	$242,000	$136	41
547 Pier 1	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,765 (+13%)	12mo	$670,000	$380	34
543 Pier 2	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,367 (-12%)	14mo	$580,000	$424	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-39,800
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-38,966
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Nebraska: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempted; moderate court pace.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 68528

• Home prices YoY: -34.8%
• Active inventory: 43
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,839 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$232 /mo · $2,779/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$386
• Net cashflow: $-52

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,905

Max offer price $215,743

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $75	-5% $11	+0% $-52	+5% $-116	+10% $-180
Rent	-10% $-198	-5% $-125	+0% $-52	+5% $20	+10% $93
Rate	-1.0pp $61	-0.5pp $5	base $-52	+0.5pp $-111	+1.0pp $-170

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
510 Surfside Dr Lincoln, NE	3.0	1.0–2.0	1051	$1,983	$1.89	15d	24	0.15mi
1864 W S St Lincoln, NE	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,800	$1.38	45d	1	0.16mi
701 Lakeside Dr Lincoln, NE	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1116	$1,795	$1.61	15d	20	0.35mi
2211 W Todd Ln Lincoln, NE	3.0	2.0	1318	$1,750	$1.33	15d	1	0.37mi
520 Lamont Dr Unit 520 Lincoln, NE	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,600	$1.39	23d	1	0.72mi
1101 W C St Lincoln, NE	1.0–3.0	1.0	1045	$1,385	$1.33	15d	9	1.18mi
760 W C St Lincoln, NE	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1018	$1,419	$1.39	15d	8	1.28mi
1170 SW 27th St Lincoln, NE	2.0–3.0	2.0	1022	$1,349	$1.32	15d	12	1.31mi
701 W C St Lincoln, NE	2.0	1.0	1554	$1,650	$1.06	23d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-03-05
   listed $225,000 New 684-char remark

   Show marketing remark (684 chars)

   PENDING CONTRACT TAKING BACK UP OFFERS. Move in ready home in NW Lincoln! Offering three bedrooms on the main level and one bathroom. The spaces really are as big as the pictures show! Vinyl flooring throughout the main level and basement for easy cleaning. Sparkling clean + updated kitchen with solid wood cabinets and all appliances included. Large finished basement with tons of value add opportunities like another bathroom or bedroom(s). Storage area with room to have your dream laundry room! Off the kitchen there is a nice patio door that walks out onto the deck, over looking the spacious backyard with two sheds and mostly fenced in yard. See this one before it slips away!

2. 2026-03-05
   historical

   Show marketing remark (684 chars)

   PENDING CONTRACT TAKING BACK UP OFFERS. Move in ready home in NW Lincoln! Offering three bedrooms on the main level and one bathroom. The spaces really are as big as the pictures show! Vinyl flooring throughout the main level and basement for easy cleaning. Sparkling clean + updated kitchen with solid wood cabinets and all appliances included. Large finished basement with tons of value add opportunities like another bathroom or bedroom(s). Storage area with room to have your dream laundry room! Off the kitchen there is a nice patio door that walks out onto the deck, over looking the spacious backyard with two sheds and mostly fenced in yard. See this one before it slips away!

3. 2026-01-15
   listed $235,000 New
4. 2023-07-31
   historical
5. 2023-07-16
   listed
6. 2013-06-30
   historical
7. 2012-10-04
   listed $86,000
8. 2012-10-03
   historical
9. 2012-09-06
   listed $99,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NE · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,779 · $232/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,892 · $324/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,113/yr (+$93/mo · 40.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,069
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$2,779
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,766
• − Management: −$1,766
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$4,515
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,084
• After-tax cash flow: $455/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lincoln Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3172840
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $50,273
• Composite: 44.05/100
• National rank: #2880
• State rank: #59 of 111 in NE

Livability — Lincoln

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #5
• US rank: #545

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A- Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lincoln, NE
• County: Lancaster County · 291,509 people
• City population: 291,509
• Metro: Lincoln, NE
• Population (ZIP): 7,273
• Household income: $75,740
• Rent vs Own: 44.9% rent · 55.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 225.0

Population outlook (Lancaster County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 352,806 people
• By 2030: 377,899 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 428,582 · +21.5%
• By 2050: 483,103 · +36.9%
• By 2075: 632,390 · +79.2%
• By 2100: 759,513 · +115.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 6% Asian 5% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Vietnam, Canada, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Vietnamese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Lancaster

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 51.4% · R 47.1% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.7pp no change · 2008: 5.0pp · 2024: 4.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+4.3 2020: D+7.8 2016: D+0.1 2012: R+1.0 2008: D+5.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -126.10%
• Current HPI: 235.7901
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lincoln, NE
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 0.68%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NE)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Conglomerate	1	$371B

Price history

+125.2% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-05 Listing Removed — GPRMLS
• 2026-03-05 Listed $225,000 GPRMLS
• 2026-01-15 Listed $235,000 GPRMLS
• 2023-07-31 Rental Removed — APPFOLIO
• 2023-07-16 Listed for Rent — APPFOLIO
• 2013-06-30 Listing Removed — GPRMLS
• 2012-10-04 Listed $86,000 GPRMLS
• 2012-10-03 Listing Removed — GPRMLS
• 2012-09-06 Listed $99,900 GPRMLS

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,779 · +16.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.