15936 First Ave

Hornbrook, CA 96044

$126,000D+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 867 sqft · Built 1954 · SingleFamily · Active · 287 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $947/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$661
• Tax + insurance: −$122
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$199
• Net cashflow: $-35/mo
• Annual: $-417/yr
• Cap rate: 5.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.18%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 0.75%
• Cash to close: $35,280

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $126k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-35 ($-417/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $120k (4.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $95k (24.9% below list).
• It's been on market 287 days — a 12% lower offer ($111k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $95k (24.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $261 of equity ($871 loan paydown + $-610 appreciation (-0.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 47/100 on livability (#1,256 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Yreka Union High (town): math 25% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #630 of 1,400 in CA (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 87 active listings in the ZIP; 50 units permitted in Siskiyou County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Siskiyou County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $42k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $126k implies a 110% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 287 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.