413 S Morgan Ave

New Meadows, ID 83654

$169,000D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 928 sqft · Built 1960 · Other · Active · 22 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,100/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax + insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$231
• Net cashflow: $-138/mo
• Annual: $-1,656/yr
• Cap rate: 5.31%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.50%
• DSCR: 0.84
• 1% rule: 0.65%
• Cash to close: $47,320

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $169k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-138 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $145k (14.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $110k (34.9% below list).
• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($166k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $110k (34.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $11k appreciation (6.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#70 in ID) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: schools C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Meadows Valley District (rural): math 40% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #69 of 133 in ID (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 96 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 13 units permitted in Adams County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Adams County population projected at -36% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 0.7% in New Meadows — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.