16 Harlow Rd

Springfield, VT 05156

$195,000D+

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,338 sqft · Built 1921 · SingleFamily · Active · 31 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,645/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax + insurance: −$196
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$345
• Net cashflow: $81/mo
• Annual: $972/yr
• Cap rate: 6.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.78%
• DSCR: 1.08
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $54,600

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $195k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $81 ($972/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $164k (15.6% below list).
• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($189k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $164k (15.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#21 in VT) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Zoned schools: Elm Hill School (390 students, 47% FRL); Riverside Middle School (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #24 of 26 statewide, top 92%, 254 students, 57% FRL); Springfield High School (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #35 of 48 statewide, top 79%, 325 students, 46% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1921 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 52 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 339 units permitted in Windsor County in 2024 (240 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Windsor County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $92k; list at $195k implies a 112% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 5.1% in Springfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1921 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.