16 Harlow Rd · Springfield, VT 05156

$195,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,338 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 28 Days on market

Built 1921 5,662 sqft lot Est $210k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.6/30.0
• ARV discount +10.7/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 2 story Gambrel single family home sits in a nice residential neighborhood. This 4 bedroom, 2 bath home makes a nice place for a big family. Nice hardwood flooring throughout, this home needs some TLC but you can live there, as you add your personal touches. Close to schools and other amenities. A great place for a great price!

Key facts

• Extra parking
• 3/4 bath
• Eat in kitchen

Tags

• FIRST FLOOR BED
• 3/4 BATH
• EAT IN KITCHEN
• FRONT PORCH
• EXTRA PARKING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Paved public road frontage (58 feet); Directions: Exit 7 to RT 11 towards Springfield, left on Grove, bear right on Union, right on Harlow

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway of crushed stone and dirt
• Utilities: Public water; Private sewer; Circuit breaker electrical; High-speed internet available, cable internet available; Cable and telephone service available
• Home design: Historic vintage / Craftsman style; Existing structure; Brown exterior; Shingle roof; Year built 1921
• Construction: Wood frame construction; Shingle siding
• Exterior features: City lot, landscaped and level to slightly sloping; Curbing and sidewalks; Street lights nearby; Near shopping, hospital, and schools; Open lot in a neighborhood setting

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen (10 x 12); Refrigerator; Electric stove
• Bedrooms: Main level bedroom (12 x 15); Second level bedroom (12 x 18); Second level bedroom (12 x 12); Second level bedroom (12 x 8)
• Flooring: Wood flooring; Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bath; 1 three-quarter bath
• Heating & cooling: Oil heat; Hot air heating
• Interior features: 7 total rooms; Concrete basement with concrete floor, full and unfinished, walkout with exterior access and basement stairs
• Laundry & utility: No laundry details provided

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $81 ($972/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $164k (15.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $164k (15.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 5.1% in Springfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#21 in VT) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Zoned schools: Elm Hill School (390 students, 47% FRL); Riverside Middle School (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #24 of 26 statewide, top 92%, 254 students, 57% FRL); Springfield High School (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #35 of 48 statewide, top 79%, 325 students, 46% FRL).
• Market conditions: 51 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 339 units permitted in Windsor County in 2024 (240 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Windsor County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($192k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $92k; list at $195k implies a 112% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1921 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $164,500 (15.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1921 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.78%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $210,066
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
35 Clement Rd	0.08mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,179 (-12%)	5mo	$190,000	$161	63
29 Coolidge St	0.08mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,207 (-10%)	14mo	$210,000	$174	62
41 Harvard St	0.55mi	4/1.5	1,456 (+9%)	15mo	$261,000	$179	44
66 Mount Vernon St	0.57mi	4/1.5	1,502 (+12%)	11mo	$190,000	$126	40
15 Walker Rd	0.50mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,391 (+4%)	23mo	$65,000	$47	40
8 Center St	0.51mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,538 (+15%)	10mo	$210,000	$137	34
70 Mt Vernon St	0.58mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,440 (+8%)	20mo	$125,000	$87	32
139 Union St	0.67mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,253 (-6%)	21mo	$240,000	$192	31
28 Craigue Hill Rd	0.60mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,221 (-9%)	23mo	$227,500	$186	27
69 Elm Hl	0.61mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,503 (+12%)	21mo	$236,000	$157	25
8 Curtis St	0.63mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,154 (-14%)	18mo	$160,000	$139	21

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-26,493
• Equity at exit: $29,075

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-16,647
• Equity at exit: $16,860

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Vermont: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause in Burlington (2022); strong habitability.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 05156

• Home prices YoY: -12.2%
• Active inventory: 51
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,645 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$115 /mo · $1,376/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$345
• Net cashflow: $81

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,542

Max offer price $195,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $191	-5% $136	+0% $81	+5% $26	+10% $-29
Rent	-10% $-49	-5% $16	+0% $81	+5% $146	+10% $211
Rate	-1.0pp $179	-0.5pp $131	base $81	+0.5pp $30	+1.0pp $-21

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
104 Park St Apt 2 Springfield, VT	3.0	1.0	1150	$1,645	$1.43	45d	1	0.33mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $195,000 Active 28 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $195,000 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $195,000 Active 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $195,000 Active 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   price $195,000 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $215,000 Active 24 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $215,000 Active 22 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $215,000 Active 21 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $215,000 Active 18 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $215,000 Active 17 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $215,000 Active 16 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $215,000 Active 13 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $215,000 Active 11 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $215,000 Active 10 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $215,000 Active 9 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $215,000 Active 8 DOM
17. 2026-05-22
    listed $215,000 Active
18. 2020-10-15
    soldstatus $92,000
19. 2020-10-13
    soldstatus $92,000 Closed 338-char remark

    Show marketing remark (338 chars)

    Charming 2 story Gambrel single family home sits in a nice residential neighborhood. This 4 bedroom, 2 bath home makes a nice place for a big family. Nice hardwood flooring throughout, this home needs some TLC but you can live there, as you add your personal touches. Close to schools and other amenities. A great place for a great price!

20. 2020-09-14
    historical Active with Contract 338-char remark

    Show marketing remark (338 chars)

    Charming 2 story Gambrel single family home sits in a nice residential neighborhood. This 4 bedroom, 2 bath home makes a nice place for a big family. Nice hardwood flooring throughout, this home needs some TLC but you can live there, as you add your personal touches. Close to schools and other amenities. A great place for a great price!

21. 2020-08-17
    listed $119,000 Active 338-char remark

    Show marketing remark (338 chars)

    Charming 2 story Gambrel single family home sits in a nice residential neighborhood. This 4 bedroom, 2 bath home makes a nice place for a big family. Nice hardwood flooring throughout, this home needs some TLC but you can live there, as you add your personal touches. Close to schools and other amenities. A great place for a great price!

22. 2003-08-07
    soldstatus $89,500 113-char remark

    Show marketing remark (113 chars)

    This 3 bedroom, 1 1/2 bath Cape is a great family home. Light and open. Close to all amendities. Big front porch.

23. 2003-04-15
    listed $89,500 113-char remark

    Show marketing remark (113 chars)

    This 3 bedroom, 1 1/2 bath Cape is a great family home. Light and open. Close to all amendities. Big front porch.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,376 · $115/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,541 · $212/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,164/yr (+$97/mo · 84.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,740
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$1,376
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,579
• − Management: −$1,579
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable loss: −$2,365
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$568
• After-tax cash flow: $1,540/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Springfield

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #21
• US rank: #5125

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Springfield, VT
• Population (ZIP): 9,028

Population outlook (Windsor County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,235 people
• By 2030: 51,269 · -3.7%
• By 2040: 46,517 · -12.6%
• By 2050: 41,859 · -21.4%
• By 2075: 33,298 · -37.5%
• By 2100: 24,523 · -53.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 13% Romanian 4% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Windsor

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+35.6) · D 66.3% · R 30.7% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.1pp toward R · 2008: 39.7pp · 2024: 35.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+35.6 2020: D+38.9 2016: D+32.1 2012: D+38.1 2008: D+39.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -43.22%
• Current HPI: 310.0154
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+140.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $215,000 PrimeMLS
• 2020-10-15 Sold (Public Records) $92,000 Public Records
• 2020-10-13 Sold (MLS) $92,000 PrimeMLS
• 2020-09-14 Contingent — PrimeMLS
• 2020-08-17 Listed $119,000 PrimeMLS
• 2003-08-07 Sold (MLS) $89,500 PrimeMLS
• 2003-04-15 Listed $89,500 PrimeMLS

Property tax history

-8.9%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,376 · +5.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.