201 Madison St

Winslow, AZ 86047

$34,100D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,260 sqft · Built 1959 · SingleFamily · Pending · 144 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,600/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$179
• Tax + insurance: −$32
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $1,053/mo
• Annual: $12,634/yr
• Cap rate: 43.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 132.32%
• DSCR: 6.89
• 1% rule: 4.69%
• Cash to close: $9,548

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $34k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $34k).
• It's been on market 144 days — a 12% lower offer ($30k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $30k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $236 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#301 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, crime F.
• Winslow Unified District (4387) (town): math 22% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #169 of 249 in AZ (top 68%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 82 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 485 units permitted in Navajo County in 2024 (11 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Navajo County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 43.3% vs local median 3.9% in Winslow — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 144 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.