201 Madison St · Winslow, AZ 86047

$34,100

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,260 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 144 Days on market

Built 1959 6,970 sqft lot $27/sqft · 79% below area ↓ 46% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Affordable investment in Winslow, AZ. Local attractions in the area include Meteor Crater & Barringer Space Museum. Home has approx. 1,260 sq. ft. and sits on a lot of approx. 6,970 sq. ft. Occupied Property - Please DO NOT DISTURB the occupant. All potential buyers are asked to check with City, County, Zoning, Tax, and other records to determine all details on this property listed above to their satisfaction. This is an AS-IS SALE property.

Key facts

• 6,970 sq ft lot
• Built 1959
• Listed 144 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $34k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $34k).
• Recommended offer: $30k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 43.3% vs local median 3.9% in Winslow — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#301 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, crime F.
• Winslow Unified District (4387) (town): math 22% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #169 of 249 in AZ (top 68%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 82 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 485 units permitted in Navajo County in 2024 (11 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $236 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Navajo County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 144 days — a 12% lower offer ($30k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $30,008 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 144 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.69% ✓
• Cap rate: 43.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 132.32%
• DSCR: 6.89
• GRM: 1.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $163,545
• List price: $34,100
• Delta: -79.15%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
323 Washington St	0.19mi	2/1.0	1,323 (+5%)	16mo	$47,500	$36	69
407 N Cottonwood Ave	0.66mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,260 (0%)	2mo	$340,000	$270	58
505 Adams St	0.21mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,401 (+11%)	11mo	$73,000	$52	58
216 W 3rd St	0.75mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,230 (-2%)	7mo	$38,000	$31	50
306 E 3rd St	0.64mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,176 (-7%)	15mo	$72,500	$62	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 7.45×
• Total profit: $61,538
• Equity at exit: $5,084

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 15.66×
• Total profit: $139,967
• Equity at exit: $2,948

Cash invested: $9,548 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 86047

• Home prices YoY: -12.1%
• Active inventory: 82
• Price-to-rent: 1.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,600 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$179
• Tax from tax record: −$18 /mo · $218/yr
• Insurance: −$14
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $1,053

Break-even live

Break-even rent $267

Max offer price $34,100

Occupancy floor 29%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,525
• Closing costs: $1,023
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
817 W Gilmore St Unit B Winslow, AZ	3.0	1.0	1144	$1,600	$1.40	44d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-02
   status $34,100 Pending 144 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $34,100 Active 144 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $34,100 Active 143 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $34,100 Active 142 DOM
5. 2026-05-11
   price $34,100 449-char remark

   Show marketing remark (449 chars)

   Affordable investment in Winslow, AZ. Local attractions in the area include Meteor Crater & Barringer Space Museum. Home has approx. 1,260 sq. ft. and sits on a lot of approx. 6,970 sq. ft. Occupied Property - Please DO NOT DISTURB the occupant. All potential buyers are asked to check with City, County, Zoning, Tax, and other records to determine all details on this property listed above to their satisfaction. This is an AS-IS SALE property.

6. 2026-03-20
   price $40,300 449-char remark

   Show marketing remark (449 chars)

   Affordable investment in Winslow, AZ. Local attractions in the area include Meteor Crater & Barringer Space Museum. Home has approx. 1,260 sq. ft. and sits on a lot of approx. 6,970 sq. ft. Occupied Property - Please DO NOT DISTURB the occupant. All potential buyers are asked to check with City, County, Zoning, Tax, and other records to determine all details on this property listed above to their satisfaction. This is an AS-IS SALE property.

7. 2026-03-04
   price $43,800 449-char remark

   Show marketing remark (449 chars)

   Affordable investment in Winslow, AZ. Local attractions in the area include Meteor Crater & Barringer Space Museum. Home has approx. 1,260 sq. ft. and sits on a lot of approx. 6,970 sq. ft. Occupied Property - Please DO NOT DISTURB the occupant. All potential buyers are asked to check with City, County, Zoning, Tax, and other records to determine all details on this property listed above to their satisfaction. This is an AS-IS SALE property.

8. 2026-02-11
   price $48,100 449-char remark

   Show marketing remark (449 chars)

   Affordable investment in Winslow, AZ. Local attractions in the area include Meteor Crater & Barringer Space Museum. Home has approx. 1,260 sq. ft. and sits on a lot of approx. 6,970 sq. ft. Occupied Property - Please DO NOT DISTURB the occupant. All potential buyers are asked to check with City, County, Zoning, Tax, and other records to determine all details on this property listed above to their satisfaction. This is an AS-IS SALE property.

9. 2026-01-26
   price $56,800 449-char remark

   Show marketing remark (449 chars)

   Affordable investment in Winslow, AZ. Local attractions in the area include Meteor Crater & Barringer Space Museum. Home has approx. 1,260 sq. ft. and sits on a lot of approx. 6,970 sq. ft. Occupied Property - Please DO NOT DISTURB the occupant. All potential buyers are asked to check with City, County, Zoning, Tax, and other records to determine all details on this property listed above to their satisfaction. This is an AS-IS SALE property.

10. 2026-01-08
    listed $63,600 Active 449-char remark

    Show marketing remark (449 chars)

    Affordable investment in Winslow, AZ. Local attractions in the area include Meteor Crater & Barringer Space Museum. Home has approx. 1,260 sq. ft. and sits on a lot of approx. 6,970 sq. ft. Occupied Property - Please DO NOT DISTURB the occupant. All potential buyers are asked to check with City, County, Zoning, Tax, and other records to determine all details on this property listed above to their satisfaction. This is an AS-IS SALE property.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $218 · $18/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $225 · $19/mo
• Expected delta: +$7/yr (+$1/mo · 3.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,910
• − Property taxes: −$218
• − Insurance: −$170
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,536
• − Management: −$1,536
• − Depreciation: −$992
• Taxable income: $12,838
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,081
• After-tax cash flow: $9,553/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Winslow Unified District (4387)
• NCES district ID: 0409460
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $38,693
• Composite: 19.73/100
• National rank: #8713
• State rank: #169 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Winslow

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #301
• US rank: #24983

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Winslow, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 13,913

Population outlook (Navajo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,760 people
• By 2030: 103,301 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 97,070 · -8.2%
• By 2050: 88,850 · -16.0%
• By 2075: 65,180 · -38.4%
• By 2100: 37,281 · -64.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.91)
• Race & ethnicity: Native American 56% Hispanic / Latino 24% White 17% Two or more races 12% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 1% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 9% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Navajo

• 2024 margin: R (+17.2) · D 40.9% · R 58.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.5pp toward R · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -17.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.2 2020: R+8.2 2016: R+7.9 2012: R+8.4 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -57.38%
• Current HPI: 416.7534
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-46.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $34,100 ARMLS
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $40,300 ARMLS
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $43,800 ARMLS
• 2026-02-11 Price Changed $48,100 ARMLS
• 2026-01-26 Price Changed $56,800 ARMLS
• 2026-01-08 Listed $63,600 ARMLS

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $218 · +5.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.