3921 Ward Ave

China Lake Acres, CA 93555

$219,000F

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Built 1975 · Manufactured · Active · 160 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,557/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,148
• Tax + insurance: −$288
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$327
• Net cashflow: $-207/mo
• Annual: $-2,481/yr
• Cap rate: 5.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.05%
• DSCR: 0.82
• 1% rule: 0.71%
• Cash to close: $61,320

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $219k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-207 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $182k (16.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $156k (28.9% below list).
• It's been on market 160 days — a 12% lower offer ($193k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $156k (28.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#642 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime B+; Watch: commute D, amenities F, health & safety F.
• Sierra Sands Unified (town): math 25% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #294 of 517 in CA (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Inyokern Elementary (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,270 of 1,571 statewide, top 83%, 161 students, 59% FRL); Murray Middle (math 26% / reading 41%, grade F, #197 of 498 statewide, top 40%, 690 students, 46% FRL); Burroughs High (math 37% / reading 70%, grade C-, #281 of 1,170 statewide, top 24%, 1,479 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools at 48% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 332 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $219k implies a 995% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 4→12/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 160 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.