3921 Ward Ave · China Lake Acres, CA 93555

$219,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured public records · 160 Days on market

Built 1975 1.00 ac lot $152/sqft · 243% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover your dream property on this spacious 1-acre estate, featuring both a beautifully updated double-wide and a charming single-wide home. Enjoy the convenience of expertly asphalted driveways leading to each residence, ensuring easy access and great curb appeal. For the handyperson or entrepreneur, two C containers with metal covers provide an ideal workshop space, perfect for all your projects. The double-wide boasts fresh new carpet, modern paint, and upgraded appliances, reflecting the care and attention this home has received. With both homes meticulously maintained, this property is ready to welcome you to a life of comfort and versatility. Don't miss out on this rare opportunity! loans@firstpacificloans. com1-800-460-0019 They will lend on this property.

Key facts

• Workshop space
• Asphalted driveways
• 1 acre estate

Tags

• 1 ACRE ESTATE
• ASPHALTED DRIVEWAYS
• WORKSHOP SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $219k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-207 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $182k (16.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $156k (28.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $156k (28.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#642 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime B+; Watch: commute D, amenities F, health & safety F.
• Sierra Sands Unified (town): math 25% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #294 of 517 in CA (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Inyokern Elementary (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,270 of 1,571 statewide, top 83%, 161 students, 59% FRL); Murray Middle (math 26% / reading 41%, grade F, #197 of 498 statewide, top 40%, 690 students, 46% FRL); Burroughs High (math 37% / reading 70%, grade C-, #281 of 1,170 statewide, top 24%, 1,479 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools at 48% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 332 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 160 days — a 12% lower offer ($193k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $219k implies a 995% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 4→12/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $155,706 (28.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 160 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.05%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $95,718
• List price: $219,000
• Delta: 128.80%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3943 W Ward Ave	0.04mi	3/2.5	1,344 (-7%)	2mo	$165,000	$123	83
1234 N Thorn	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,440 (0%)	14mo	$160,000	$111	81
1465 Pony St	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,456 (+1%)	15mo	$173,900	$119	67
4248 Johnston Ave	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,440 (0%)	4mo	$220,000	$153	64
1321 Pinto St	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,440 (0%)	20mo	$61,900	$43	59
3939 W Ward	0.03mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,296 (-10%)	24mo	$120,000	$93	53
1206 Strecker St	0.69mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,584 (+10%)	11mo	$42,000	$27	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.58% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-47,763
• Equity at exit: $32,654

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-54,845
• Equity at exit: $18,935

Cash invested: $61,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93555

• Home prices YoY: -24.0%
• Rents YoY: 3.6%
• Active inventory: 332
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,557 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,148
• Tax from tax record: −$197 /mo · $2,365/yr
• Insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$327
• Net cashflow: $-207

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,819

Max offer price $182,484

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-83	-5% $-145	+0% $-207	+5% $-269	+10% $-331
Rent	-10% $-330	-5% $-268	+0% $-207	+5% $-145	+10% $-84
Rate	-1.0pp $-96	-0.5pp $-151	base $-207	+0.5pp $-263	+1.0pp $-321

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,750
• Closing costs: $6,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1321 Pinto St Ridgecrest, CA	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,450	$1.01	4d	1	0.44mi
4423 Johnston Ave Unit D Ridgecrest, CA	2.0	1.0	968	$1,100	$1.14	4d	1	0.77mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $219,000 Active 160 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $219,000 Active 157 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $219,000 Active 156 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $219,000 Active 155 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $219,000 Active 154 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $219,000 Active 152 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $219,000 Active 151 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $219,000 Active 149 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $219,000 Active 148 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $219,000 Active 147 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $219,000 Active 146 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $219,000 Active 143 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $219,000 Active 142 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $219,000 Active 141 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $219,000 Active 140 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $219,000 Active 139 DOM
17. 2026-05-13
    status Active 776-char remark

    Show marketing remark (776 chars)

    Discover your dream property on this spacious 1-acre estate, featuring both a beautifully updated double-wide and a charming single-wide home. Enjoy the convenience of expertly asphalted driveways leading to each residence, ensuring easy access and great curb appeal. For the handyperson or entrepreneur, two C containers with metal covers provide an ideal workshop space, perfect for all your projects. The double-wide boasts fresh new carpet, modern paint, and upgraded appliances, reflecting the care and attention this home has received. With both homes meticulously maintained, this property is ready to welcome you to a life of comfort and versatility. Don't miss out on this rare opportunity! loans@firstpacificloans. com1-800-460-0019 They will lend on this property.

18. 2026-05-13
    price $219,000 776-char remark

    Show marketing remark (776 chars)

    Discover your dream property on this spacious 1-acre estate, featuring both a beautifully updated double-wide and a charming single-wide home. Enjoy the convenience of expertly asphalted driveways leading to each residence, ensuring easy access and great curb appeal. For the handyperson or entrepreneur, two C containers with metal covers provide an ideal workshop space, perfect for all your projects. The double-wide boasts fresh new carpet, modern paint, and upgraded appliances, reflecting the care and attention this home has received. With both homes meticulously maintained, this property is ready to welcome you to a life of comfort and versatility. Don't miss out on this rare opportunity! loans@firstpacificloans. com1-800-460-0019 They will lend on this property.

19. 2026-05-13
    status Pending 776-char remark

    Show marketing remark (776 chars)

    Discover your dream property on this spacious 1-acre estate, featuring both a beautifully updated double-wide and a charming single-wide home. Enjoy the convenience of expertly asphalted driveways leading to each residence, ensuring easy access and great curb appeal. For the handyperson or entrepreneur, two C containers with metal covers provide an ideal workshop space, perfect for all your projects. The double-wide boasts fresh new carpet, modern paint, and upgraded appliances, reflecting the care and attention this home has received. With both homes meticulously maintained, this property is ready to welcome you to a life of comfort and versatility. Don't miss out on this rare opportunity! loans@firstpacificloans. com1-800-460-0019 They will lend on this property.

20. 2026-04-03
    price $229,000 776-char remark

    Show marketing remark (776 chars)

    Discover your dream property on this spacious 1-acre estate, featuring both a beautifully updated double-wide and a charming single-wide home. Enjoy the convenience of expertly asphalted driveways leading to each residence, ensuring easy access and great curb appeal. For the handyperson or entrepreneur, two C containers with metal covers provide an ideal workshop space, perfect for all your projects. The double-wide boasts fresh new carpet, modern paint, and upgraded appliances, reflecting the care and attention this home has received. With both homes meticulously maintained, this property is ready to welcome you to a life of comfort and versatility. Don't miss out on this rare opportunity! loans@firstpacificloans. com1-800-460-0019 They will lend on this property.

21. 2026-03-03
    price $239,000 776-char remark

    Show marketing remark (776 chars)

    Discover your dream property on this spacious 1-acre estate, featuring both a beautifully updated double-wide and a charming single-wide home. Enjoy the convenience of expertly asphalted driveways leading to each residence, ensuring easy access and great curb appeal. For the handyperson or entrepreneur, two C containers with metal covers provide an ideal workshop space, perfect for all your projects. The double-wide boasts fresh new carpet, modern paint, and upgraded appliances, reflecting the care and attention this home has received. With both homes meticulously maintained, this property is ready to welcome you to a life of comfort and versatility. Don't miss out on this rare opportunity! loans@firstpacificloans. com1-800-460-0019 They will lend on this property.

22. 2026-01-12
    listed $259,000 Active 776-char remark

    Show marketing remark (776 chars)

    Discover your dream property on this spacious 1-acre estate, featuring both a beautifully updated double-wide and a charming single-wide home. Enjoy the convenience of expertly asphalted driveways leading to each residence, ensuring easy access and great curb appeal. For the handyperson or entrepreneur, two C containers with metal covers provide an ideal workshop space, perfect for all your projects. The double-wide boasts fresh new carpet, modern paint, and upgraded appliances, reflecting the care and attention this home has received. With both homes meticulously maintained, this property is ready to welcome you to a life of comfort and versatility. Don't miss out on this rare opportunity! loans@firstpacificloans. com1-800-460-0019 They will lend on this property.

23. 1981-08-31
    soldstatus $20,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,365 · $197/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,365 · $197/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 4 d/yr ≥104°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,685
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,267
• − Property taxes: −$2,365
• − Insurance: −$1,095
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,495
• − Management: −$1,495
• − Depreciation: −$6,371
• Taxable loss: −$6,403
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,537
• After-tax cash flow: $-944/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sierra Sands Unified
• NCES district ID: 0636800
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,937
• Composite: 28.66/100
• National rank: #6699
• State rank: #294 of 517 in CA

Livability — China Lake Acres

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #642
• US rank: #20115

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D Cost of living C+ Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: China Lake Acres, CA
• County: Kern County · 710,371 people
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• Population (ZIP): 33,845
• Household income: $86,700
• Rent vs Own: 37.5% rent · 62.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 975.0

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 12% Black 4% Asian 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -120.17%
• Current HPI: 380.5208
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.58%
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+995.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Relisted — SSMLS
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $219,000 SSMLS
• 2026-05-13 Pending — SSMLS
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $229,000 SSMLS
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $239,000 SSMLS
• 2026-01-12 Listed $259,000 SSMLS
• 1981-08-31 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,365 · +6.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.