686-945 Cedar Way

Spaulding, CA 96130

$164,900D+

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,192 sqft · Built 1982 · SingleFamily · Active · 280 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,413/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax + insurance: −$222
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$297
• Net cashflow: $29/mo
• Annual: $347/yr
• Cap rate: 6.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.75%
• DSCR: 1.03
• 1% rule: 0.86%
• Cash to close: $46,172

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $29 ($347/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $141k (14.3% below list).
• It's been on market 280 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $141k (14.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 49/100 on livability (#1,173 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Watch: schools D-, crime F, amenities F.
• Susanville Elementary (town): math 27% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #350 of 517 in CA (top 68%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 236 active listings in the ZIP; 6 units permitted in Lassen County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lassen County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $48k; list at $165k implies a 244% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 280 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.