686-945 Cedar Way · Spaulding, CA 96130

$164,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,192 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 280 Days on market

Built 1982 0.28 ac lot Est $223k · 26% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.3/30.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Fly Fisherman's Dream Getaway! Come take a look at this 3 bedroom, 1 bath cabin w/ 1192 square feet of livable space. Living room featuring a vaulted ceiling, carpeting and a cozy oil stove to keep you warm on those cold nights. Kitchen is equipped w/ refrigerator, gas range w/ vented hood & tons of cabinetry for storage. Outside, there is a covered patio for BBQing or just relaxing at the end of the day. Located at beautiful Eagle lake in Northern CA.

Key facts

• Cozy oil stove
• Vaulted ceiling
• Covered patio

Tags

• VAULTED CEILING
• COZY OIL STOVE
• COVERED PATIO
• EAGLE LAKE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Septic tank
• Home design: Residential single-family home; R1 zoning
• Construction: Frame construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Level lot; Unimproved road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet
• Heating & cooling: Ceiling fan(s); Has cooling
• Interior features: Vaulted ceilings; Eat-in kitchen; Insulated windows
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $29 ($347/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $141k (14.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $141k (14.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 49/100 on livability (#1,173 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Watch: schools D-, crime F, amenities F.
• Susanville Elementary (town): math 27% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #350 of 517 in CA (top 68%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 236 active listings in the ZIP; 6 units permitted in Lassen County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lassen County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 280 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $48k; list at $165k implies a 244% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $141,279 (14.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 280 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.75%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $222,904
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
687-770 Hollywood Way	0.57mi	2/2.5 (+1)	1,156 (-3%)	3mo	$216,000	$187	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-24,890
• Equity at exit: $24,587

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-19,347
• Equity at exit: $14,258

Cash invested: $46,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96130

• Active inventory: 236
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,413 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$154 /mo · $1,845/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$297
• Net cashflow: $29

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,376

Max offer price $164,900

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,225
• Closing costs: $4,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $164,900 Active 280 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $164,900 Active 279 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $164,900 Active 278 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $164,900 Active 277 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $164,900 Active 276 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $164,900 Active 274 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $164,900 Active 273 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $164,900 Active 270 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $164,900 Active 269 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $164,900 Active 268 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $164,900 Active 267 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $164,900 Active 264 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $164,900 Active 263 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $164,900 Active 262 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $164,900 Active 261 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $164,900 Active 260 DOM
17. 2026-04-14
    price $164,900
18. 2025-09-09
    listed $181,900 Active
19. 1999-07-14
    soldstatus $48,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,845 · $154/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,845 · $154/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 21 unhealthy d/yr today · 22 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,953
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,237
• − Property taxes: −$1,845
• − Insurance: −$824
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,356
• − Management: −$1,356
• − Depreciation: −$4,797
• Taxable loss: −$2,462
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$591
• After-tax cash flow: $938/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Susanville Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0638550
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $49,068
• Composite: 25.69/100
• National rank: #7387
• State rank: #350 of 517 in CA

Livability — Spaulding

• Score: 49/100
• State rank: #1173
• US rank: #25924

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime F Employment D- Housing C+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Spaulding, CA
• Population (ZIP): 20,892

Population outlook (Lassen County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 27,112 people
• By 2030: 26,732 · -1.4%
• By 2040: 25,536 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 23,262 · -14.2%
• By 2075: 18,620 · -31.3%
• By 2100: 14,679 · -45.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 17% Black 9% Native American 2% Pacific Islander 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lassen

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+54.0) · D 21.8% · R 75.8% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -34.2pp · 2024: -54.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+54.0 2020: R+51.5 2016: R+51.3 2012: R+39.8 2008: R+34.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -126.12%
• Current HPI: 136.1585
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+243.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $164,900 LAORMLS
• 2025-09-09 Listed $181,900 LAORMLS
• 1999-07-14 Sold (Public Records) $48,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,845 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.