4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,323 sqft ·
Built 1994
· Condo
· Active
· 160 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$3,078/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,568
Tax + insurance
−$428
HOA
−$586
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$646
Net cashflow
$-150/mo
Annual
$-1,797/yr
Cap rate
5.69%
Cash-on-cash
-2.15%
DSCR
0.90
1% rule
1.03%
Cash to close
$83,720
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $299k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-150 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $273k (8.8% below list).
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $299k).
It's been on market 160 days — a 12% lower offer ($263k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $263k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 88/100 on livability (#7 in FL, #226 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, employment A+; Watch: schools D+, cost of living F.
Orange (suburban): math 46% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #43 of 73 in FL (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 318 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 8,053 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,133 in 5+ unit buildings).
Orange County population projected at +52% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
3 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $136k; list at $299k implies a 119% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 2.5% in Doctor Phillips — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($98k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 160 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
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· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29