3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,643 sqft ·
Built 1976
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 18 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,308/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$996
Tax + insurance
−$201
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$275
Net cashflow
$-163/mo
Annual
$-1,960/yr
Cap rate
5.26%
Cash-on-cash
-3.69%
DSCR
0.84
1% rule
0.69%
Cash to close
$53,172
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-163 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $161k (15.2% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $131k (31.1% below list).
It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($187k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $131k (31.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $19k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 63/100 on livability (#227 in OK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
Vinita (town): math 24% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #156 of 270 in OK (top 58%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Zoned schools: Vinita Es (math 33% / reading 18%, grade F, #345 of 845 statewide, top 41%, 595 students, 0% FRL); Ewing Halsell Ms (math 17% / reading 20%, grade F, #182 of 345 statewide, top 53%, 307 students, 0% FRL); Vinita Hs (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #150 of 447 statewide, top 48%, 419 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 56% district-wide (56 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
Market conditions: 113 active listings in the ZIP; 24 units permitted in Craig County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Craig County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
3 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $130k; 46% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
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· Data 9 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29