565 Mill St

Watertown, NY 13601

$269,000B+

12 bd · 4.0 ba · 6,144 sqft · Built 1950 · MultiFamily · Active · 186 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,974/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,411
• Tax + insurance: −$273
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,255
• Net cashflow: $3,035/mo
• Annual: $36,424/yr
• Cap rate: 19.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 48.36%
• DSCR: 3.15
• 1% rule: 2.22%
• Cash to close: $75,320

Investor read

• This is a 4 × 3-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $269k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($36k/yr) — positive. Per door: $759/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $269k).
• It's been on market 186 days — a 12% lower offer ($237k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $237k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#540 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living A-, housing A-; Watch: amenities C-, schools D, crime F.
• Watertown City School District (urban): math 34% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #481 of 590 in NY (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.0%/yr); 223 active listings in the ZIP; 196 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jefferson County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $99k; list at $269k implies a 172% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $75k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 19.8% vs local median 6.2% in Watertown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $5,974/mo this rent would consume 122% of the median local household income ($59k/yr) (locally 1634% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 186 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?