565 Mill St

Watertown, NY 13601

$243,000A-

12 bd · 4.0 ba · 6,144 sqft · Built 1950 · MultiFamily · Active · 303 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,903/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,274
• Tax + insurance: −$263
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,240
• Net cashflow: $3,126/mo
• Annual: $37,518/yr
• Cap rate: 21.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 55.14%
• DSCR: 3.45
• 1% rule: 2.43%
• Cash to close: $68,040

Investor read

• This is a 4 × 3-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $243k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($38k/yr) — positive. Per door: $782/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $243k).
• It's been on market 303 days — a 12% lower offer ($214k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $214k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#540 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living A-, housing A-; Watch: amenities C-, crime F, commute F.
• Watertown City School District (urban): math 34% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #481 of 590 in NY (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: North Elementary School (math 32% / reading 62%, grade D-, #1,195 of 2,108 statewide, top 60%, 455 students, 71% FRL); Case Middle School (math 17% / reading 41%, grade F, #566 of 729 statewide, top 78%, 626 students, 70% FRL); Watertown Senior High School (math 89% / reading 92%, grade A+, #231 of 1,100 statewide, top 21%, 1,083 students, 65% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 49% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.0%/yr); 389 active listings in the ZIP; 196 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jefferson County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $99k; list at $243k implies a 145% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $68k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 21.7% vs local median 6.0% in Watertown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent per unit runs 30% of the median local income ($59k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 303 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: roof repair — The satellite image shows visible damage to the roof
• Major: exterior siding repair — The exterior siding shows signs of wear and tear
• Minor: paint touch-up — The paint appears faded and could benefit from touch-up