565 Mill St · Watertown, NY 13601

$243,000

12 bd · 4.0 ba · 6,144 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 303 Days on market

Built 1950 Fair condition 3,990 sqft lot $40/sqft · 49% below area Est $481k · 49% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (5+ Unit). Listing-text estimate: 4 units. estimate disagrees with records

5+ unit building — per-unit beds/baths from public records are typically unavailable; the breakdown below (if shown) is an estimate from the listing text.

Listing remarks MLS

This 4 unit property offers spacious 3 bedroom 1 bath townhouse style apartments. Tenants pay all utilities except water and sewer. Each unit has its own individual access with covered porch. The front porch is in need of roof repair. Presently two units are rented and two have just been prepared to start showing. The two apartments that are rented collect around $900 a month and with a little attention could be rasied to $1100 for the size of aparmtents offered. This place is perfect for someone looking to break into investment properties without breaking the bank.

Key facts

• 3,990 sq ft lot
• Built 1950
• Listed 302 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4 × 3-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $243k. Condition is rated fair.
• This rent per unit runs 30% of the median local income ($59k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($38k/yr) — positive. Per door: $782/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $243k).
• Recommended offer: $214k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 21.7% vs local median 6.0% in Watertown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#540 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living A-, housing A-; Watch: amenities C-, crime F, commute F.
• Watertown City School District (urban): math 34% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #481 of 590 in NY (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: North Elementary School (math 32% / reading 62%, grade D-, #1,195 of 2,108 statewide, top 60%, 455 students, 71% FRL); Case Middle School (math 17% / reading 41%, grade F, #566 of 729 statewide, top 78%, 626 students, 70% FRL); Watertown Senior High School (math 89% / reading 92%, grade A+, #231 of 1,100 statewide, top 21%, 1,083 students, 65% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 49% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.0%/yr); 389 active listings in the ZIP; 196 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $68k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 303 days — a 12% lower offer ($214k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $99k; list at $243k implies a 145% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $213,840 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 303 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
5. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
9. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.43% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 55.14%
• DSCR: 3.45
• GRM: 3.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $480,670
• List price: $243,000
• Delta: -49.45%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
209 William St	0.71mi	12/5.0	5,399 (-12%)	26mo	$285,000	$53	23
145 N Pleasant St	0.90mi	10/4.0 (-2)	5,254 (-14%)	54mo	$215,000	$41	11
1005 Academy St	1.00mi	10/4.0 (-2)	7,263 (+18%)	56mo	$100,000	$14	10

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 58.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.81×
• Total profit: $190,947
• Equity at exit: $36,232

10-year hold

• IRR: 65.4%
• Equity multiple: 9.30×
• Total profit: $564,672
• Equity at exit: $21,010

Cash invested: $68,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13601

• Home prices YoY: -5.6%
• Rents YoY: 10.0%
• Active inventory: 389
• Price-to-rent: 13.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,903 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,274
• Tax from tax record: −$161 /mo · $1,936/yr
• Insurance: −$101
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,240
• Net cashflow: $3,126

4-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 4× units	3	1	$5,904
Total (4 units)			$5,903

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,945

Max offer price $243,000

Occupancy floor 42%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $3,264	-5% $3,195	+0% $3,126	+5% $3,058	+10% $2,989
Rent	-10% $2,660	-5% $2,893	+0% $3,126	+5% $3,360	+10% $3,593
Rate	-1.0pp $3,249	-0.5pp $3,188	base $3,126	+0.5pp $3,063	+1.0pp $2,999

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,750
• Closing costs: $7,290
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
611 Cooper St Watertown, NY	3.0	1.0	1190	$1,495	$1.26	184d	1	0.07mi
227 W Main St Watertown, NY	3.0	1.0	4500	$850	$0.19	10d	1	0.15mi
138 Saint Mary St Watertown, NY	3.0	1.5	1116	$1,375	$1.23	18d	1	0.18mi
606 Lansing St Unit 2 Watertown, NY	2.0	1.0	—	$1,150	—	0d	1	0.20mi
634 Lansing St Watertown, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,300	$1.08	50d	1	0.22mi
214 Saint Mary St Watertown, NY	3.0	1.5	—	$1,650	—	0d	1	0.26mi
377 W Main St Unit 1 Watertown, NY	3.0	1.0	1991	$1,350	$0.68	184d	1	0.29mi
702 Leray St Watertown, NY	3.0	1.0	2700	$1,300	$0.48	184d	1	0.35mi
150 Seymour St Watertown, NY	3.0	1.5	1539	$1,750	$1.14	24d	1	0.36mi
732 Leray St Watertown, NY	3.0	1.5	1440	$1,300	$0.90	12d	1	0.39mi
732 Leray St Watertown, NY	3.0	1.5	1440	$1,300	$0.90	0d	1	0.39mi
523 Jefferson St Watertown, NY	3.0	1.5	1440	$1,500	$1.04	2d	1	0.40mi
313 High St Watertown, NY	2.0	1.0	851	$1,100	$1.29	36d	1	0.44mi
311 High St Watertown, NY	2.0	1.0	851	$1,200	$1.41	184d	1	0.44mi
195 Mechanic St Watertown, NY	4.0	2.0	1376	$1,495	$1.09	51d	1	0.45mi
629 Hancock St Unit 2 Watertown, NY	2.0	1.0	967	$1,800	$1.86	0d	1	0.47mi
836 Leray St Watertown, NY	2.0	1.0	1782	$1,200	$0.67	184d	1	0.48mi
400 Coffeen St Unit 3 Watertown, NY	2.0	1.0	—	$1,350	—	184d	1	0.48mi
682 Huntington St Apt 2 Watertown, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$900	$1.00	51d	1	0.50mi
415 E Main St Watertown, NY	3.0	1.0	2390	$1,400	$0.59	17d	1	0.52mi
124 Haven St Watertown, NY	3.0	2.0	948	$1,550	$1.64	34d	1	0.63mi
156 N Meadow St Watertown, NY	4.0	1.0	2535	$1,500	$0.59	184d	1	0.63mi
123 State Pl Watertown, NY	4.0	1.5	1500	$1,750	$1.17	10d	1	0.64mi
807 W Main St #2 Watertown, NY	2.0	1.0	1837	$1,200	$0.65	0d	1	0.67mi
136 N Meadow St Unit A Watertown, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$995	$0.99	184d	1	0.67mi
328 Clay St Unit 3 Watertown, NY	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,650	$1.10	184d	1	0.68mi
328 Clay St Unit 3 Watertown, NY	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,650	$1.10	1d	1	0.68mi
245 Central St Watertown, NY	2.0	1.0	950	$1,100	$1.16	10d	1	0.73mi
409 Franklin St Unit 2 Watertown, NY	2.0	1.0	—	$850	—	184d	1	0.74mi
863 W Main St Watertown, NY	2.0	1.5	1365	$1,150	$0.84	18d	1	0.74mi
213 Clinton St Watertown, NY	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,200	$1.00	51d	1	0.75mi
136 S Orchard St Unit 1 Watertown, NY	2.0	1.0	—	$1,050	—	10d	1	0.75mi
126 Scio St Watertown, NY	2.0	1.0	1868	$1,200	$0.64	2d	1	0.75mi
415 Franklin St Watertown, NY	3.0	2.5	3000	$1,600	$0.53	47d	1	0.76mi
417 Franklin St Watertown, NY	3.0	2.5	3000	$1,750	$0.58	184d	1	0.76mi
402 Stone St Apt 1 Watertown, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$995	$1.11	43d	1	0.76mi
621 Academy St Watertown, NY	3.0	2.0	1652	$1,600	$0.97	184d	1	0.77mi
159 Mullin St Unit 2 Watertown, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$1,200	$1.33	184d	1	0.78mi
123 S Rutland St Watertown, NY	2.0	1.0	1639	$1,200	$0.73	17d	1	0.82mi
911 State St Unit 1 Watertown, NY	3.0	1.0	—	$1,100	—	10d	1	0.85mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-10-14
   days on market $243,000 Active 303 DOM
2. 2026-10-13
   days on market $243,000 Active 302 DOM
3. 2026-10-12
   days on market $243,000 Active 301 DOM
4. 2026-10-11
   days on market $243,000 Active 300 DOM
5. 2026-10-10
   days on market $243,000 Active 299 DOM
6. 2026-10-09
   days on market $243,000 Active 298 DOM
7. 2026-10-08
   days on market $243,000 Active 297 DOM
8. 2026-10-07
   days on market $243,000 Active 296 DOM
9. 2026-10-06
   days on market $243,000 Active 295 DOM
10. 2026-10-05
    days on market $243,000 Active 294 DOM
11. 2026-10-04
    days on market $243,000 Active 293 DOM
12. 2026-10-03
    days on market $243,000 Active 292 DOM
13. 2026-10-03
    price $243,000 Active 291 DOM
14. 2026-10-02
    days on market $269,000 Active 291 DOM
15. 2026-10-01
    days on market $269,000 Active 290 DOM
16. 2026-09-30
    days on market $269,000 Active 289 DOM
17. 2026-09-29
    days on market $269,000 Active 288 DOM
18. 2026-09-28
    days on market $269,000 Active 287 DOM
19. 2026-09-27
    days on market $269,000 Active 286 DOM
20. 2026-09-26
    days on market $269,000 Active 285 DOM
21. 2026-09-25
    days on market $269,000 Active 284 DOM
22. 2026-09-24
    days on market $269,000 Active 283 DOM
23. 2026-09-23
    days on market $269,000 Active 282 DOM
24. 2026-09-21
    days on market $269,000 Active 280 DOM
25. 2026-09-20
    days on market $269,000 Active 279 DOM
26. 2026-09-18
    days on market $269,000 Active 277 DOM
27. 2026-09-17
    days on market $269,000 Active 276 DOM
28. 2026-09-16
    days on market $269,000 Active 275 DOM
29. 2026-09-15
    days on market $269,000 Active 274 DOM
30. 2026-09-14
    days on market $269,000 Active 273 DOM
31. 2026-09-13
    days on market $269,000 Active 272 DOM
32. 2026-09-12
    days on market $269,000 Active 271 DOM
33. 2026-09-11
    days on market $269,000 Active 270 DOM
34. 2026-09-05
    days on market $269,000 Active 264 DOM
35. 2026-09-04
    days on market $269,000 Active 263 DOM
36. 2026-09-03
    days on market $269,000 Active 262 DOM
37. 2026-09-02
    days on market $269,000 Active 261 DOM
38. 2026-08-30
    days on market $269,000 Active 258 DOM
39. 2026-08-29
    days on market $269,000 Active 257 DOM
40. 2026-08-28
    days on market $269,000 Active 256 DOM
41. 2026-08-27
    days on market $269,000 Active 255 DOM
42. 2026-08-26
    days on market $269,000 Active 254 DOM
43. 2026-08-25
    days on market $269,000 Active 253 DOM
44. 2026-08-24
    days on market $269,000 Active 252 DOM
45. 2026-08-23
    days on market $269,000 Active 251 DOM
46. 2026-08-22
    days on market $269,000 Active 250 DOM
47. 2026-08-21
    days on market $269,000 Active 249 DOM
48. 2026-08-20
    days on market $269,000 Active 248 DOM
49. 2026-08-19
    days on market $269,000 Active 247 DOM
50. 2026-08-18
    days on market $269,000 Active 246 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,936 · $161/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,021 · $252/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,085/yr (+$90/mo · 56.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $70,836
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,612
• − Property taxes: −$1,936
• − Insurance: −$1,215
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,667
• − Management: −$5,667
• − Depreciation: −$7,069
• Taxable income: $35,670
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$8,561
• After-tax cash flow: $28,957/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab Est. rehab $153,600–$276,480 screening

This multi-family property requires moderate repairs and maintenance, including roof and exterior siding repairs, as well as paint touch-up. These improvements would significantly enhance its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof repair — The satellite image shows visible damage to the roof
• Major exterior siding repair — The exterior siding shows signs of wear and tear
• Minor paint touch-up — The paint appears faded and could benefit from touch-up

Value-add opportunities

• Both roof repair — Fixing the roof would improve the overall condition and appearance of the property ↑
• Both exterior siding repair — Repairing the siding would enhance the curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both paint touch-up — Touching up the paint would improve the appearance and make the property more attractive ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 56/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary North Elementary School D- NY #1,195/2,108 Nat'l #14,504/41,679 Middle Case Middle School F NY #566/729 Nat'l #9,290/14,009 High Watertown Senior High School A+ NY #231/1,100 Nat'l #375/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Watertown City School District
• NCES district ID: 3630120
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▲ 12.00%
• Median HH income: $40,919
• Composite: 36.86/100
• National rank: #4551
• State rank: #481 of 590 in NY

C Composite livability gradescore 68/100

Livability — Watertown

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #540
• US rank: #9700

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A- Crime F Employment D- Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Watertown, NY
• County: Jefferson County · 111,748 people
• City population: 36,839
• Metro: Watertown-Fort Drum, NY
• Population (ZIP): 36,839
• Household income: $58,791
• Rent vs Own: 51.4% rent · 48.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 12% of renters

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Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 111,748 people
• By 2030: 109,370 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 103,828 · -7.1%
• By 2050: 98,523 · -11.8%
• By 2075: 91,422 · -18.2%
• By 2100: 78,214 · -30.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.6) · D 38.2% · R 61.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.3pp toward R · 2008: -5.3pp · 2024: -23.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.6 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+22.4 2012: R+2.9 2008: R+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -18.86%
• Current HPI: 316.636
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.96%
• Metro: Watertown-Fort Drum, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+171.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-15 Listed $269,000 CNYIS
• 2019-10-04 Sold (MLS) $99,000 CNYIS
• 2019-07-31 Listed $99,000 CNYIS
• 2019-05-06 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2019-04-30 Listed $99,000 CNYIS

Property tax history

+18.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,936 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.