508 Cider Hill Rd

Jacksonville, NC 28546

$189,900D+

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,084 sqft · Built 2011 · SingleFamily · Pending · 119 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,486/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax + insurance: −$149
• HOA: −$43
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$312
• Net cashflow: $-15/mo
• Annual: $-177/yr
• Cap rate: 6.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.33%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $53,172

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $190k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-15 ($-177/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $187k (1.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $149k (21.8% below list).
• It's been on market 119 days — a 9% lower offer ($173k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $149k (21.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#111 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Onslow County Schools (other): math 42% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #84 of 178 in NC (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Carolina Forest Elementary (math 53% / reading 52%, grade C-, #349 of 1,410 statewide, top 25%, 678 students, 49% FRL); Jacksonville Commons Middle (math 39% / reading 47%, grade D-, #191 of 475 statewide, top 41%, 1,011 students, 64% FRL); Jacksonville High (math 52% / reading 66%, grade C+, #233 of 535 statewide, top 44%, 1,423 students, 44% FRL) — zoned schools average 52% FRL vs 37% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 612 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,246 units permitted in Onslow County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $124k; list at $190k implies a 53% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 97% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.4% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 119 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.