508 Cider Hill Rd · Jacksonville, NC 28546

$189,900

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,084 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 119 Days on market

Built 2011 1,307 sqft lot Est $227k · 16% under $43/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.8/15.0
• Cash flow +12.9/30.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great Location! Welcome Home to this wonderful 2 bedroom , 2.5 Bath Townhome that has an open floor plan, nice size kitchen, screened porch with a storage room and fenced back yard. Close to schools, shopping and all bases. Call today to make this your new home or investment property.

Key facts

• $43 HOA
• Built 2011
• Listed 119 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-15 ($-177/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $187k (1.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $149k (21.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $149k (21.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.4% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#111 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Onslow County Schools (other): math 42% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #84 of 178 in NC (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Carolina Forest Elementary (math 53% / reading 52%, grade C-, #349 of 1,410 statewide, top 25%, 678 students, 49% FRL); Jacksonville Commons Middle (math 39% / reading 47%, grade D-, #191 of 475 statewide, top 41%, 1,011 students, 64% FRL); Jacksonville High (math 52% / reading 66%, grade C+, #233 of 535 statewide, top 44%, 1,423 students, 44% FRL) — zoned schools average 52% FRL vs 37% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 612 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,246 units permitted in Onslow County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 119 days — a 9% lower offer ($173k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $124k; list at $190k implies a 53% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 97% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $148,555 (21.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 119 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.33%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $226,556
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1002 W T Whitehead Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,226 (+13%)	12mo	$255,662	$209	34
2011 Wt Whitehead Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,210 (+12%)	23mo	$257,000	$212	30
104 Nia Ct	0.70mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,198 (+10%)	20mo	$242,500	$202	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.86% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-30,469
• Equity at exit: $28,315

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-22,547
• Equity at exit: $16,419

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28546

• Home prices YoY: -19.3%
• Rents YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 612
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,486 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$70 /mo · $844/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$43
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$312
• Net cashflow: $-15

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,504

Max offer price $187,293

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $93	-5% $39	+0% $-15	+5% $-69	+10% $-122
Rent	-10% $-132	-5% $-73	+0% $-15	+5% $44	+10% $103
Rate	-1.0pp $81	-0.5pp $34	base $-15	+0.5pp $-64	+1.0pp $-114

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1003 Wt Whitehead Dr Jacksonville, NC	3.0	2.0	1225	$1,890	$1.54	23d	1	0.56mi
606 Springwood Dr Jacksonville, NC	3.0	3.0	1069	$1,500	$1.40	23d	1	0.61mi
500 Springwood Dr Jacksonville, NC	3.0	3.0	1195	$1,400	$1.17	23d	1	0.61mi
100 Delaney Dr Jacksonville, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1150	$1,440	$1.25	15d	11	0.80mi
100 Windsor Cir Jacksonville, NC	3.0	1.0–2.5	1033	$1,469	$1.42	15d	11	1.35mi
5049 Western Blvd Jacksonville, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1118	$1,419	$1.27	15d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $43 · $516/yr

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-04-15
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-01
   price $189,900
3. 2025-12-17
   listed $195,000 Active
4. 2025-04-27
   historical $1,350
5. 2025-04-19
   listed $1,350
6. 2021-07-27
   soldstatus $124,000 285-char remark

   Show marketing remark (285 chars)

   Great Location! Welcome Home to this wonderful 2 bedroom , 2.5 Bath Townhome that has an open floor plan, nice size kitchen, screened porch with a storage room and fenced back yard. Close to schools, shopping and all bases. Call today to make this your new home or investment property.

7. 2021-07-27
   soldstatus $124,000

   Show marketing remark (285 chars)

   Great Location! Welcome Home to this wonderful 2 bedroom , 2.5 Bath Townhome that has an open floor plan, nice size kitchen, screened porch with a storage room and fenced back yard. Close to schools, shopping and all bases. Call today to make this your new home or investment property.

8. 2021-05-13
   listed $121,400 285-char remark

   Show marketing remark (285 chars)

   Great Location! Welcome Home to this wonderful 2 bedroom , 2.5 Bath Townhome that has an open floor plan, nice size kitchen, screened porch with a storage room and fenced back yard. Close to schools, shopping and all bases. Call today to make this your new home or investment property.

9. 2011-09-13
   soldstatus $219,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $844 · $70/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,557 · $130/mo
• Expected delta: +$713/yr (+$59/mo · 84.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 97% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,827
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$844
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,426
• − Management: −$1,426
• − HOA: −$516
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable loss: −$3,497
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$839
• After-tax cash flow: $662/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Onslow County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3703450
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $46,076
• Composite: 38.66/100
• National rank: #4148
• State rank: #84 of 178 in NC

Livability — Jacksonville

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #111
• US rank: #6991

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Onslow County · 164,453 people
• Metro: Jacksonville, NC
• Population (ZIP): 47,256
• Household income: $63,561
• Rent vs Own: 42.2% rent · 57.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1830.0

Population outlook (Onslow County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 189,789 people
• By 2030: 194,463 · +2.5%
• By 2040: 193,629 · +2.0%
• By 2050: 193,248 · +1.8%
• By 2075: 196,995 · +3.8%
• By 2100: 201,513 · +6.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Black 18% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 13% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 5% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Serbian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 8% German/W. Germanic 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Onslow

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+35.9) · D 31.5% · R 67.5% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.5pp toward R · 2008: -21.5pp · 2024: -35.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+35.9 2020: R+30.2 2016: R+34.6 2012: R+27.0 2008: R+21.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -50.75%
• Current HPI: 211.9993
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.86%
• Metro: Jacksonville, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

-13.3% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Pending — Hive MLS
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $189,900 Hive MLS
• 2025-12-17 Listed $195,000 Hive MLS
• 2025-04-27 Rental Removed $1,350 APPFOLIO
• 2025-04-19 Listed for Rent $1,350 APPFOLIO
• 2021-07-27 Sold (Public Records) $124,000 Public Records
• 2021-07-27 Sold (MLS) $124,000 Hive MLS
• 2021-05-13 Listed $121,400 Hive MLS
• 2011-09-13 Sold (Public Records) $219,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $844 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.