1834 Gravel Hill Rd

Stewartsville, VA 24179

$169,950C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Built 1987 · SingleFamily · Pending · 53 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,540/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax + insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$323
• Net cashflow: $220/mo
• Annual: $2,635/yr
• Cap rate: 7.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.54%
• DSCR: 1.25
• 1% rule: 0.91%
• Cash to close: $47,586

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $220 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $154k (9.4% below list).
• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($165k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $154k (9.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Bedford County Public School District (rural): math 55% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #41 of 131 in VA (top 31%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Stewartsville Elementary (math 57% / reading 72%, grade B, #416 of 1,108 statewide, top 41%, 330 students, 87% FRL); Staunton River Middle (math 45% / reading 65%, grade B-, #189 of 342 statewide, top 56%, 627 students, 86% FRL); Staunton River High (math 39% / reading 66%, grade C-, #293 of 319 statewide, top 92%, 889 students, 69% FRL) — zoned schools average 81% FRL vs 30% district-wide (50 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 158 active listings in the ZIP; 294 units permitted in Bedford County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bedford County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 6 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $72k; list at $170k implies a 136% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 3.0% in Stewartsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.