1834 Gravel Hill Rd · Stewartsville, VA 24179

$169,950

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 53 Days on market

Built 1987 2.75 ac lot Est $173k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.4/30.0
• ARV discount +8.4/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nice location, wooded and very private. Home needs lots of TLC but could be made into a great home.

Key facts

• 2.75 acre lot
• Built 1987
• Listed 53 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $220 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $154k (9.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $154k (9.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 3.0% in Stewartsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Bedford County Public School District (rural): math 55% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #41 of 131 in VA (top 31%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Stewartsville Elementary (math 57% / reading 72%, grade B, #416 of 1,108 statewide, top 41%, 330 students, 87% FRL); Staunton River Middle (math 45% / reading 65%, grade B-, #189 of 342 statewide, top 56%, 627 students, 86% FRL); Staunton River High (math 39% / reading 66%, grade C-, #293 of 319 statewide, top 92%, 889 students, 69% FRL) — zoned schools average 81% FRL vs 30% district-wide (50 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 158 active listings in the ZIP; 294 units permitted in Bedford County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bedford County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($165k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $72k; list at $170k implies a 136% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $154,008 (9.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.54%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $173,472
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1834 Gravel Hill Rd	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,248 (0%)	1mo	$172,500	$138	99
2120 Shady Run Rd	0.64mi	3/1.0	1,272 (+2%)	12mo	$177,000	$139	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-13,641
• Equity at exit: $25,340

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $5,780
• Equity at exit: $14,694

Cash invested: $47,586 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24179

• Active inventory: 158
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,540 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$35 /mo · $421/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$323
• Net cashflow: $220

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,262

Max offer price $169,950

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,488
• Closing costs: $5,098
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-04-15
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-07
   status Active
3. 2026-03-19
   status Active
4. 2026-02-03
   status Pending
5. 2026-02-03
   historical
6. 2025-12-23
   status Active
7. 2025-10-30
   status Pending
8. 2025-10-27
   listed $169,950 Active
9. 2024-01-29
   historical
10. 2023-11-14
    listed $160,000 Active
11. 2017-03-02
    soldstatus $72,000
12. 2016-07-01
    soldstatus $19,000 99-char remark

    Show marketing remark (99 chars)

    Nice location, wooded and very private. Home needs lots of TLC but could be made into a great home.

13. 2016-02-15
    listed $29,900 99-char remark

    Show marketing remark (99 chars)

    Nice location, wooded and very private. Home needs lots of TLC but could be made into a great home.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $421 · $35/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,394 · $116/mo
• Expected delta: +$973/yr (+$81/mo · 231.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,481
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,520
• − Property taxes: −$421
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,478
• − Management: −$1,478
• − Depreciation: −$4,944
• Taxable loss: −$210
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$50
• After-tax cash flow: $2,685/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bedford County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100360
• Math proficiency: 55% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $56,288
• Composite: 54.92/100
• National rank: #1310
• State rank: #41 of 131 in VA

Livability — Stewartsville

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 18,834

Population outlook (Bedford County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 83,194 people
• By 2030: 85,499 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 88,834 · +6.8%
• By 2050: 90,060 · +8.3%
• By 2075: 94,131 · +13.1%
• By 2100: 89,832 · +8.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 4% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Bedford

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.4) · D 24.4% · R 74.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.0pp toward R · 2008: -37.4pp · 2024: -50.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.4 2020: R+48.1 2016: R+49.4 2012: R+45.0 2008: R+37.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -117.89%
• Current HPI: 186.9964
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+468.4% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Pending — MLSRV
• 2026-04-07 Relisted — MLSRV
• 2026-03-19 Relisted — MLSRV
• 2026-02-03 Pending — MLSRV
• 2026-02-03 Listing Removed — MLSRV
• 2025-12-23 Relisted — MLSRV
• 2025-10-30 Pending — MLSRV
• 2025-10-27 Listed $169,950 MLSRV
• 2024-01-29 Listing Removed — MLSRV
• 2023-11-14 Listed $160,000 MLSRV
• 2017-03-02 Sold (Public Records) $72,000 Public Records
• 2016-07-01 Sold (MLS) $19,000 MLSRV
• 2016-02-15 Listed $29,900 MLSRV

Property tax history

-1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $421 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.