219 Lumberton Ave

Vincentown, NJ 08036

$389,000D+

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,408 sqft · Built 1820 · SingleFamily · Active · 100 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,200/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,040
• Tax + insurance: −$478
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$672
• Net cashflow: $10/mo
• Annual: $120/yr
• Cap rate: 6.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.11%
• DSCR: 1.00
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $108,920

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $389k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $10 ($120/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $320k (17.7% below list).
• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($354k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $320k (17.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.4%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Hainesport Township School District (suburban): math 27% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #205 of 472 in NJ (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: built in 1820 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 31 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,161 units permitted in Burlington County in 2024 (988 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Burlington County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 14 sale attempts since 25y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $36k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $205k; list at $389k implies a 90% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 55% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.5% in Vincentown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1820 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.