219 Lumberton Ave · Vincentown, NJ 08036

$389,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,408 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 100 Days on market

Built 1820 6,098 sqft lot Est $420k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.4/30.0
• ARV discount +10.8/15.0
• Appreciation +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 219 Lumberton Avenue, Hainesport, NJ. THIS HOME TRULEY HAS IT ALL! From the minute you walk up you can envision coffee on the front porch. As you enter the home you are stepping into a bright and airy Open Concept way of Living. Great for hosting family gatherings. Adequate Size Living Room with Hardwood Flooring and Ceiling Fan, Plenty of Natural Light flows nicely into the Kitchen/ Dining Area both with Hardwood Flooring, a Large Pinnacle adds to the Eating Space as well as plenty of Natural Light and Pendant Lighting and Recessed Lighting throughout. , Kitchen comes complete with Granite Counter tops with plenty of space for prepping meals and a Complete Stainless Steel Appli

Key facts

• Hardwood flooring
• Open concept
• Front porch

Tags

• FRONT PORCH
• OPEN CONCEPT
• HARDWOOD FLOORING
• NATURAL LIGHT
• GRANITE COUNTER TOPS
• MUD ROOM

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Two total garage/parking spaces; Driveway with two spaces; On-street parking available; Crushed stone private parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; 110 volt electric; Natural gas for heating and hot water
• Home design: Detached property; Excellent condition; Year built (effective): 2026; Living area measured by assessor
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Concrete perimeter foundation; Replacement windows; Building not winterized
• Exterior features: Sidewalks; Porch(es); Patio(s); Shed

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven (self-cleaning); Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the upper level
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Tile/brick
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on upper level); One half bathroom on main level
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Attic; Combination kitchen/dining; Kitchen with table space; Master bathroom with soaking tub and tub/shower; Walk-in closet(s); Not furnished
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer; Laundry on main floor

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $389k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $10 ($120/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $320k (17.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $320k (17.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.5% in Vincentown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Hainesport Township School District (suburban): math 27% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #205 of 472 in NJ (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 31 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,161 units permitted in Burlington County in 2024 (988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.4%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Burlington County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($354k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 14 sale attempts since 25y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $36k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $205k; list at $389k implies a 90% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1820 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 55% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $320,000 (17.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1820 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.11%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $419,584
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1611 Marne Hwy	0.37mi	3/1.5	1,440 (+2%)	9mo	$480,000	$333	68
20 Lumberton Rd	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,360 (-3%)	17mo	$430,000	$316	68
117 Pine Ln	0.70mi	3/1.0	1,428 (+1%)	1mo	$350,000	$245	58
112 Pine Ln	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,472 (+4%)	7mo	$465,000	$316	54
4 Pine Ln	0.59mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,320 (-6%)	4mo	$285,000	$216	51
1007 Marne Hwy	0.61mi	3/1.0	1,342 (-5%)	13mo	$350,000	$261	47
3 Pine Ln	0.61mi	3/1.0	1,234 (-12%)	21mo	$367,500	$298	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.36% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-34,953
• Equity at exit: $87,256

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-4,492
• Equity at exit: $86,077

Cash invested: $108,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08036

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Active inventory: 31
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,200 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,040
• Tax from tax record: −$316 /mo · $3,791/yr
• Insurance: −$162
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$672
• Net cashflow: $10

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,187

Max offer price $389,000

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $230	-5% $120	+0% $10	+5% $-100	+10% $-210
Rent	-10% $-243	-5% $-116	+0% $10	+5% $136	+10% $263
Rate	-1.0pp $206	-0.5pp $109	base $10	+0.5pp $-91	+1.0pp $-193

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $97,250
• Closing costs: $11,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
509 Hainesport Lumberton Rd Unit 1 Hainesport, NJ	3.0	2.0	1100	$3,200	$2.91	2d	1	0.16mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-21
   pricedays on market $389,000 Active 100 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $399,000 Active 97 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $399,000 Active 96 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $399,000 Active 95 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $399,000 Active 94 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $399,000 Active 92 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $399,000 Active 88 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $399,000 Active 87 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $399,000 Active 86 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $399,000 Active 83 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $399,000 Active 82 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $399,000 Active 81 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    price $399,000 Active 80 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $409,000 Active 80 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $409,000 Active 79 DOM
16. 2026-05-20
    price $409,000
17. 2026-04-28
    price $414,000
18. 2026-04-09
    price $419,000
19. 2026-04-09
    price $219,000
20. 2026-03-13
    listed $425,000 Active
21. 2025-09-17
    soldstatus $205,000
22. 2023-01-07
    historical
23. 2023-01-04
    status Active
24. 2023-01-02
    historical
25. 2022-12-13
    price $198,000
26. 2022-12-01
    status Active
27. 2022-11-19
    historical
28. 2022-11-19
    price $229,000
29. 2022-11-19
    status Active
30. 2022-11-19
    historical
31. 2022-11-19
    historical
32. 2018-04-22
    historical
33. 2018-04-12
    price $169,000
34. 2018-04-10
    listed $155,000 Active
35. 2016-09-30
    historical
36. 2016-03-31
    listed $169,900
37. 2015-10-16
    historical
38. 2015-10-14
    soldstatus $47,324 Sold
39. 2015-10-14
    soldstatus $47,324
40. 2015-08-05
    status Under Contract
41. 2015-08-04
    historical
42. 2015-07-27
    price $55,200
43. 2015-07-09
    status Active
44. 2015-06-29
    historical
45. 2015-06-04
    price $65,200
46. 2015-05-27
    status Active
47. 2015-05-19
    historical
48. 2015-05-04
    price $75,120
49. 2015-04-10
    price $83,420
50. 2015-04-01
    listed $92,620 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,791 · $316/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,739 · $562/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,947/yr (+$246/mo · 77.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 55% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,790
• − Property taxes: −$3,791
• − Insurance: −$1,945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,072
• − Management: −$3,072
• − Depreciation: −$11,316
• Taxable loss: −$6,587
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,581
• After-tax cash flow: $1,701/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hainesport Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3406420
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $88,435
• Composite: 38.07/100
• National rank: #4283
• State rank: #205 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Vincentown

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,028

Population outlook (Burlington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 453,425 people
• By 2030: 452,359 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 445,033 · -1.9%
• By 2050: 431,760 · -4.8%
• By 2075: 406,277 · -10.4%
• By 2100: 364,732 · -19.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 7% Asian 7% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Burlington

• 2024 margin: D (+16.6) · D 57.6% · R 41.0% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.0pp toward R · 2008: 18.6pp · 2024: 16.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.6 2020: D+19.5 2016: D+14.8 2012: D+18.7 2008: D+18.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.36%
• Current HPI: 302.0676
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+643.6% since first listed

45 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $409,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $414,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $419,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $219,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-13 Listed $425,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-09-17 Sold (Public Records) $205,000 Public Records
• 2023-01-07 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-01-04 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-01-02 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-12-13 Price Changed $198,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-12-01 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-11-19 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-11-19 Price Changed $229,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-11-19 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-11-19 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-11-19 Coming Soon — BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-04-22 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-04-12 Price Changed $169,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-04-10 Listed $155,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2016-09-30 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2016-03-31 Listed $169,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2015-10-16 Delisted — TREND
• 2015-10-14 Sold (MLS) $47,324 BRIGHT MLS
• 2015-10-14 Sold (MLS) $47,324 TREND
• 2015-08-05 Pending — TREND
• 2015-08-04 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2015-07-27 Price Changed $55,200 TREND
• 2015-07-09 Relisted — TREND
• 2015-06-29 Delisted — TREND
• 2015-06-04 Price Changed $65,200 TREND
• 2015-05-27 Relisted — TREND
• 2015-05-19 Delisted — TREND
• 2015-05-04 Price Changed $75,120 TREND
• 2015-04-10 Price Changed $83,420 TREND
• 2015-04-01 Listed $92,620 TREND
• 2015-04-01 Listed $55,200 BRIGHT MLS
• 2012-01-03 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2012-01-03 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2011-06-01 Listed $190,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2011-01-02 Listed $190,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2002-04-15 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2002-04-15 Listed $139,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2001-10-26 Sold (MLS) $55,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2001-10-03 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2001-09-21 Listed $55,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,791 · +10.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.