129 Serrania Dr

El Paso, TX 79932

$169,000B

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 3,295 sqft · Built 1977 · SingleFamily · Pending · 3 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,223/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax + insurance: −$708
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$677
• Net cashflow: $951/mo
• Annual: $11,417/yr
• Cap rate: 16.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.94%
• DSCR: 2.55
• 1% rule: 1.91%
• Cash to close: $47,320

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $169k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $951 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $169k).
• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#23 in TX, #1,375 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+.
• El Paso ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #591 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Don Haskins Pk-8 (1,674 students, 68% FRL); Franklin H S (math 45% / reading 63%, grade C-, #422 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 3,149 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools at 61% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 54% at this address vs 32% district-wide (+22 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the El Paso ISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 255 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,196 units permitted in El Paso County in 2024 (143 in 5+ unit buildings).
• El Paso County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 10 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $108k; list at $169k implies a 56% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.0% rent growth), your $47k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $3,223/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($78k/yr) (locally 655% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.