129 Serrania Dr · El Paso, TX 79932

$169,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 3,295 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1977 0.27 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Investors, flippers, or experienced DIY homebuyers looking for a bargain in desirable neighborhoods. 5-bedroom, 3-bathroom home nestled in the desirable Upper Valley. property sits on over a quarter-acre lot and offers both privacy and comfort in a quiet cul-de-sac setting. This property may qualify for seller financing (Vendee).

Key facts

• 0.27 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1977

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property on a 0.27-acre lot; Total building area approximately 3,295

Exterior

• Home design: Single family residence
• Construction: Stucco construction; Flat roof
• Exterior features: See remarks for exterior details; Flat roof; Stucco exterior

Interior

• Kitchen: Appliances listed in remarks
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heating: see remarks; No central cooling
• Interior features: See remarks for additional interior details; Tile flooring; No window treatments; One fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $169k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $951 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $169k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#23 in TX, #1,375 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+.
• El Paso ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #591 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Don Haskins Pk-8 (1,674 students, 68% FRL); Franklin H S (math 45% / reading 63%, grade C-, #422 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 3,149 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools at 61% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 54% at this address vs 32% district-wide (+22 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the El Paso ISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 255 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,196 units permitted in El Paso County in 2024 (143 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,223/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($78k/yr) (locally 655% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• El Paso County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.0% rent growth), your $47k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 10 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $108k; list at $169k implies a 56% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $169,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.91% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.94%
• DSCR: 2.55
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.03% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.85×
• Total profit: $40,237
• Equity at exit: $25,198

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.02×
• Total profit: $143,053
• Equity at exit: $14,612

Cash invested: $47,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79932

• Home prices YoY: -31.8%
• Rents YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 255
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,223 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$211 /mo · $2,535/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$677
• Net cashflow: $951

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,018

Max offer price $169,000

Occupancy floor 65%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,250
• Closing costs: $5,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5233 White Oak Dr El Paso, TX	4.0	3.0	3095	$4,100	$1.32	19d	1	0.82mi
4945 Vista Grande Cir El Paso, TX	3.0	2.5	3059	$3,100	$1.01	14d	1	0.99mi
5525 Valley Cedar Dr El Paso, TX	4.0	2.5	2483	$2,850	$1.15	2d	1	1.32mi
520 Gomez Rd El Paso, TX	4.0	2.5	3244	$3,900	$1.20	23d	1	1.35mi
712 Meadowlark Dr El Paso, TX	5.0	4.0	3400	$2,800	$0.82	11d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-09
   listed $169,000 Active
3. 2025-04-28
   historical
4. 2025-04-21
   listed $419,950 Active
5. 2024-05-03
   historical $3,295
6. 2024-04-30
   price $3,295
7. 2024-04-02
   price $3,695
8. 2024-01-13
   listed $3,995
9. 2023-12-28
   soldstatus
10. 2022-08-04
    historical
11. 2022-07-27
    soldstatus
12. 2022-07-08
    listed $390,000 Active
13. 2022-06-25
    historical
14. 2022-06-09
    price $315,000
15. 2022-06-01
    listed $305,000 Active
16. 2021-02-24
    soldstatus
17. 2021-01-11
    status Pending
18. 2021-01-06
    price $275,000
19. 2020-11-20
    listed $259,950 Active
20. 2020-10-29
    historical
21. 2020-10-17
    price $260,000
22. 2020-08-20
    status Active
23. 2020-08-04
    historical
24. 2020-07-21
    listed $265,000 Active
25. 2018-11-01
    soldstatus
26. 2018-08-22
    listed $235,900 Active
27. 2018-04-26
    historical
28. 2018-04-07
    price $244,900
29. 2018-03-21
    price $249,500
30. 2018-02-13
    listed $254,500 Active
31. 2000-06-01
    soldstatus
32. 1993-09-29
    soldstatus $108,296
33. 1987-01-09
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AE · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,672
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,467
• − Property taxes: −$2,535
• − Insurance: −$5,964
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,094
• − Management: −$3,094
• − Depreciation: −$4,916
• Taxable income: $9,603
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,305
• After-tax cash flow: $9,112/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: El Paso ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818300
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $38,704
• Composite: 26.75/100
• National rank: #7138
• State rank: #591 of 826 in TX

Livability — El Paso

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #23
• US rank: #1375

Category grades

Amenities B Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: El Paso, TX
• County: El Paso County · 761,266 people
• City population: 630,223
• Metro: El Paso, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,786
• Household income: $78,277
• Rent vs Own: 28.9% rent · 71.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 655.0

Population outlook (El Paso County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 897,899 people
• By 2030: 922,694 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 960,492 · +7.0%
• By 2050: 982,919 · +9.5%
• By 2075: 997,266 · +11.1%
• By 2100: 900,630 · +0.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 79% Two or more races 31% White 19%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 72%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Romanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 35% English-only · Spanish 62% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · El Paso

• 2024 margin: D (+15.1) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.4pp toward R · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 15.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.1 2020: D+35.1 2016: D+43.2 2012: D+32.6 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -108.39%
• Current HPI: 232.2077
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.03%
• Metro: El Paso, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+56.1% since first listed

33 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — GEPARMLS
• 2026-05-09 Listed $169,000 GEPARMLS
• 2025-04-28 Listing Removed — GEPARMLS
• 2025-04-21 Listed $419,950 GEPARMLS
• 2024-05-03 Rental Removed $3,295 GEPARMLS
• 2024-04-30 Price Changed $3,295 GEPARMLS
• 2024-04-02 Price Changed $3,695 GEPARMLS
• 2024-01-13 Listed for Rent $3,995 GEPARMLS
• 2023-12-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-08-04 Listing Removed — GEPARMLS
• 2022-07-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-07-08 Listed $390,000 GEPARMLS
• 2022-06-25 Listing Removed — GEPARMLS
• 2022-06-09 Price Changed $315,000 GEPARMLS
• 2022-06-01 Listed $305,000 GEPARMLS
• 2021-02-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-01-11 Pending — GEPARMLS
• 2021-01-06 Price Changed $275,000 GEPARMLS
• 2020-11-20 Listed $259,950 GEPARMLS
• 2020-10-29 Listing Removed — GEPARMLS
• 2020-10-17 Price Changed $260,000 GEPARMLS
• 2020-08-20 Relisted — GEPARMLS
• 2020-08-04 Listing Removed — GEPARMLS
• 2020-07-21 Listed $265,000 GEPARMLS
• 2018-11-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-08-22 Listed $235,900 GEPARMLS
• 2018-04-26 Listing Removed — GEPARMLS
• 2018-04-07 Price Changed $244,900 GEPARMLS
• 2018-03-21 Price Changed $249,500 GEPARMLS
• 2018-02-13 Listed $254,500 GEPARMLS
• 2000-06-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1993-09-29 Sold (Public Records) $108,296 Public Records
• 1987-01-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $10,626 · +1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.