3 bd · 2.5 ba ·
1,706 sqft ·
Built 1985
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 60 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,600/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$2,229
Tax + insurance
−$593
HOA
−$97
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$546
Net cashflow
$-865/mo
Annual
$-10,379/yr
Cap rate
3.85%
Cash-on-cash
-8.72%
DSCR
0.61
1% rule
0.61%
Cash to close
$119,000
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $425k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-865 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $272k (36.0% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $260k (38.8% below list).
It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($412k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $260k (38.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $45k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $42k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 80/100 on livability (#121 in OH, #1,779 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities D, commute F.
Kings Local (suburban): math 76% / reading 78% proficiency, ranked #61 of 656 in OH (top 9%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
Zoned schools: Kings Mills Elementary School (math 81% / reading 73%, grade A, #221 of 1,584 statewide, top 16%, 532 students, 9% FRL); Kings Junior High School (math 73% / reading 77%, grade A, #83 of 654 statewide, top 13%, 714 students, 15% FRL); Kings High School (math 67% / reading 81%, grade B+, #83 of 781 statewide, top 11%, 1,435 students, 14% FRL) — zoned schools at 13% FRL track the district average.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.4%/yr); 130 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,224 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (474 in 5+ unit buildings).
Warren County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$73k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 39% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
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